IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mig/journl/v11y2014i1p33-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing immigration: A review of some past projections

Author

Listed:
  • B. Lindsay Lowell

    (Director of Policy Studies, Institute for the Study of International Migration, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. USA)

Abstract

International migration may not be amenable to expert knowledge and projections are often unreliable. Three examples of projections suggest failures regardless of scale, timeline or method: trend mechanics failed to anticipate the rapid rebound in temporary visas after the socioeconomic shocks of 2001, alternate assumptions generated wildly differing projections of visas under Congressional deliberation in 2006, and all theories/projections failed to anticipate recent declines in Mexico-to-US migration. While near term projections are required for planning the complex machinery to manage migration, medium-to-long range projections may inform but should not drive migration policy. Rather, admission policies should incorporate principals of self-regulation that prioritize domestic markets.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Lindsay Lowell, 2014. "Managing immigration: A review of some past projections," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 11(1), pages 33-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mig:journl:v:11:y:2014:i:1:p:33-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journal.tplondon.com/index.php/ml/article/view/14/27
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neiman, Brent & Swagel, Phillip, 2009. "The impact of post-9/11 visa policies on travel to the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 86-99, June.
    2. Chiquiar Daniel & Salcedo Alejandrina, 2013. "Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows," Working Papers 2013-20, Banco de México.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2017. "Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios," Working Papers 1701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caballero, María Esther & Cadena, Brian C. & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "The international transmission of local economic shocks through migrant networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "Grounded! The Impact of Disrupted Transport Networks on International Trade," Conference papers 332470, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    4. Song, Haiyan & Gartner, William C. & Tasci, Asli D.A., 2012. "Visa restrictions and their adverse economic and marketing implications – Evidence from China," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 397-412.
    5. Anca D. Cristea & Russell Hillberry & Aaditya Mattoo, 2015. "Open Skies over the Middle East," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1650-1681, November.
    6. Pala, Ali & Zhuang, Jun, 2018. "Security screening queues with impatient applicants: A new model with a case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 919-930.
    7. Ding, Ding & Timmer, Yannick, 2023. "Exchange rate elasticities of international tourism and the role of dominant currency pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Tekleselassie, Tsegay Gebrekidan, 2016. "Three essays on the impact of institutions and policies on socio-economic outcomes," Economics PhD Theses 1316, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Ayumu Tanaka, 2013. "Geographic Concentration of Foreign Visitors to Japan," Discussion papers e-12-013, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    10. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2017. "Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios," Working Papers 1701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Sandra Orozco-Aleman & Heriberto Gonzalez-Lozano, 2021. "Return Migration and Self-Employment: Evidence from Mexican Migrants," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 148-183, June.
    13. Ayumu Tanaka, 2023. "Geographic concentration of foreign visitors: evidence from Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 211-222, February.
    14. Volker Nitsch, 2019. "Passport, please! Travels, travails and trade," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(15), pages 1274-1278, September.
    15. Robert A. Lawson & Saurav Roychoudhury, 2016. "Do travel visa requirements impede tourist travel?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 817-828, October.
    16. Lizhi Xu & Shouyang Wang & Jingjing Li & Ling Tang & Yanmin Shao, 2019. "Modelling international tourism flows to China: A panel data analysis with the gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1047-1069, November.
    17. Tadao Hoshino, 2020. "A Pairwise Strategic Network Formation Model with Group Heterogeneity: With an Application to International Travel," Papers 2012.14886, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    18. Alan King, 2010. "The Effect Of 9/11 On Us Exports And Imports Of Tourism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5-6), pages 535-546.
    19. Farai Jena & Barry Reilly, 2013. "The determinants of United Kingdom student visa demand from developing countries," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, December.
    20. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2018. "Effects of Distance and Borders on International and Interregional Tourist Flows: A micro-gravity analysis," Discussion papers 18021, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mig:journl:v:11:y:2014:i:1:p:33-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ML (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.migrationletters.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.