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Presentation and Testing of the Creeping Trend with Harmonic Weights Method in the Light of Sovereign CDS Prices

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  • Renáta Géczi-Papp

    (Universiity of Miskolc)

Abstract

The prediction of financial indicators is not easy, as the influencing factors may change from time to time. The sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread is a complex measure which helps evaluate country risk, and there are a number of quantitative and qualitative criteria that may have an impact on the price development. The study aims to present and test a relatively new method. Forecasting based on the creeping trend with harmonic weights allows us to manage independent variables that are not constant in time. The study presents the method and illustrates its effectiveness through an empirical example, using the Hungarian and German five-year USD denominated quarterly CDS spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Renáta Géczi-Papp, 2018. "Presentation and Testing of the Creeping Trend with Harmonic Weights Method in the Light of Sovereign CDS Prices," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 14(02), pages 25-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:mic:tmpjrn:v:14:y:2018:i:02:p:25-37
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    File URL: http://tmp.gtk.uni-miskolc.hu/volumes/2018/02/TMP_2018_02_TMP_2018_02_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    6. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
    7. Stephan Dieckmann & Thomas Plank, 2012. "Default Risk of Advanced Economies: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swaps during the Financial Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 903-934.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Default Swap; forecast; creeping trend with harmonic weights; sovereign CDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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