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Empirical Analysis of the Wagner Hypothesis of Government Expenditure Growth in Kenya: ARDL Modelling Approach

Author

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  • John Kibara Manyeki

    (University of Szeged)

  • Balázs Kotosz

    (University of Szeged)

Abstract

Government spending patterns in developing countries have changed dramatically over the last several decades. This paper aims at analysing the relation between government expenditures (GE) and economic growth in Kenya. The study focuses on testing the various versions of Wagner’s hypothesis using Kenya, data from 1967-2012 by an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Overall, we conclude that the Musgrave version is best suited for Kenyan cases since it produced significant long-run and short-run results that were accepted by diagnosis and stability tests. The results rejected Wagner’s hypothesis in Kenya.

Suggested Citation

  • John Kibara Manyeki & Balázs Kotosz, 2017. "Empirical Analysis of the Wagner Hypothesis of Government Expenditure Growth in Kenya: ARDL Modelling Approach," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 13(02), pages 45-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:mic:tmpjrn:v:13:y:2017:i:02:p:45-57
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner s hypothesis; ARDL model; Kenya;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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