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Reforming the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: Who Votes for it? When?

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  • Georges Casamatta
  • João Luis Brasil Gondim

Abstract

We assess the political support for parametric reforms of the pay-as-you-go pension system following a drop in the fertility rate. Using a continuous-time overlapping-generations model, we argue that reforms that consist in cutting pension benefits or increasing the retirement age are likely to receive strong political support. An increase in the contribution rate has, on the contrary, fewer chances to be approved by the majority of the voters. This framework also allows us to identify the costs and benefits of postponing each type of reform and to determine how the timing of the different reforms affects their political support.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Casamatta & João Luis Brasil Gondim, 2011. "Reforming the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: Who Votes for it? When?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(3), pages 225-260, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(201109)67:3_225:rtppsw_2.0.tx_2-3
    DOI: 10.1628/001522108X600588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    2. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2000. "The Political Economy of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 503-522, September.
    3. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    4. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
    5. Friedrich Breyer & Klaus Stolte, 2001. "Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 409-424.
    6. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    7. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:503-22 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Benjamin Bittschi & Berthold U. Wigger, 2019. "On the Political Feasibility of Increasing the Legal Retirement Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 7492, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pay-as-you-go; parametric reforms; fertility shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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