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The Predictability of Management Forecast Error: A Study of Australian IPO Disclosures

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  • Neil Hartnett

    (The University of Newcastle, Australia)

  • Jennifer Romcke

    (The University of Newcastle, Australia)

Abstract

Contemporaneous evidence of corporate revenue and profit forecasting error is provided in a different institutional context, Australian sharemarket initial public offerings. This article extends the literature on company forecast risk by incorporating new proxies for forecasting error (float motive, subscription price premium, range of activities and internationalisation) and by refining others. The study investigates the association between earnings forecast risk and conventional ex-ante uncertainty proxies used to explain IPO underpricing. Ex-ante and ex-post explanatory variables are distinguished and a forecast error prediction model is tested. The results show revenue forecast errors were smaller and less sensitive than those for profit. Strong associations are reported between forecast error and float motive, audit quality and unanticipated industry activity. The link between earnings forecast error and proxies for initial public offering underpricing is observed. Predictability was poor regarding individual company forecast error, but improved for portfolio average forecasting error.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Hartnett & Jennifer Romcke, 2000. "The Predictability of Management Forecast Error: A Study of Australian IPO Disclosures," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 101-132, March-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:4:y:2000:i:1-2:p:101-132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Denis Cormier & Daniel Coulombe & Luania Gomez Gutierrez & Bruce J. Mcconomy, 2018. "Firms in Transition: A Review of the Venture Capital, IPO, and M&A Literature," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 9-88, March.
    2. Chatalova, Natalia & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2016. "Analyst coverage and IPO management forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 263-277.
    3. Sosnowski Tomasz & Wawryszuk-Misztal Anna, 2019. "Board characteristics and earnings forecasts accuracy in IPO prospectuses," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
    4. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.
    5. Georgakopoulos, Georgios & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Huang, Chen & Patsika, Victoria, 2022. "The impact of IFRS adoption on IPOs management earnings forecasts in Australia," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Li Chen & David Hay & Jingyuan Zhuang, 2020. "Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2167-2202, September.
    7. Jamal Kouhian & Abbas Alimoradi Sharifabadi, 2015. "The Relationship between Managements’ Forecasted EPS and Risk in the Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 116-126, April.
    8. Neil Hartnett, 2006. "The representativeness of management financial forecasts vis-à-vis naïve forecasts," Asian Review of Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 5-23, July.
    9. McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    10. Manel Allaya & Narjess Toumi, 2020. "The effect of lockup on management earnings forecasts disclosure in French IPOs," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 24(2), pages 507-529, June.
    11. George J. Papaioannou & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2000. "Special Issue on Initial Public Offerings," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(1-2), pages 1-4, March-Jun.
    12. Anis Mnif, 2009. "Corporate Governance And Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French Ipos," Post-Print halshs-00459171, HAL.
    13. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    error; forecast; IPO; prediction; profit; underpricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania

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