IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v19y2015i1p1-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Media Content and Stock Returns: The Predictive Power of Press

Author

Listed:
  • Nicky J. Ferguson

    (University of Cambridge, UK)

  • Dennis Philip

    (Durham University Business School, UK)

  • Herbert Y. T. Lam

    (Renmin University of China, China)

  • Jie Michael Guo

    (Durham University Business School, UK)

Abstract

This paper examines whether tone (positive and negative) and volume of firm-specific news media content provide valuable information about future stock returns, using UK news media data from 1981–2010. The results indicate that both tone and volume of news media content significantly predict next period abnormal returns, with the impact of volume more pronounced than tone. Additionally, the predictive power of tone is found to be stronger among lower visibility firms. Further, the paper finds evidence of an attention-grabbing effect for firm-specific news stories with high media coverage, mainly seen among larger firms. A simple news-based trading strategy produces statistically significant risk-adjusted returns of 14.2 to 19 basis points in the period 2003–2010. At the aggregate level, price pressure induced by semantics in news stories is corrected only in part by subsequent reversals. Overall, the findings suggest firm-specific news media content incorporates valuable information that predicts asset returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicky J. Ferguson & Dennis Philip & Herbert Y. T. Lam & Jie Michael Guo, 2015. "Media Content and Stock Returns: The Predictive Power of Press," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:1-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~0~p19kn3gng510rf1pr61f39c9l1lks4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/928.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    5. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    6. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    7. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wu, Di, 2013. "Word power: A new approach for content analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 712-729.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    9. Joseph E. Engelberg & Christopher A. Parsons, 2011. "The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 67-97, February.
    10. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    11. John M. Griffin & Nicholas H. Hirschey & Patrick J. Kelly, 2011. "How Important Is the Financial Media in Global Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3941-3992.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    14. Eric K. Kelley & Paul C. Tetlock, 2013. "How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1229-1265, June.
    15. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    16. Casey Dougal & Joseph Engelberg & Diego García & Christopher A. Parsons, 2012. "Journalists and the Stock Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 639-679.
    17. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    18. Sha Liu, 2014. "The Impact of Textual Sentiment on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone Crisis," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 18(3-4), pages 215-248, September.
    19. David H. Solomon, 2012. "Selective Publicity and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 599-638, April.
    20. Umit G. Gurun & Alexander W. Butler, 2012. "Don't Believe the Hype: Local Media Slant, Local Advertising, and Firm Value," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 561-598, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Chen-Hui & Lin, Chan-Jane, 2017. "The impact of media coverage on investor trading behavior and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 151-172.
    2. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    3. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 838-868, July.
    5. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Angelos J. Doukas & Jie (Michael) Guo & Herbert Y. T. Lam & Sarah (Hong) Xiao, 2016. "Media Endorsements of New Product Announcements: A New Marketing Strategy," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 394-426, June.
    7. Löffler, Gunter & Norden, Lars & Rieber, Alexander, 2021. "Negative news and the stock market impact of tone in rating reports," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Betton, Sandra & Davis, Frederick & Walker, Thomas, 2018. "Rumor rationales: The impact of message justification on article credibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 271-287.
    9. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    10. Ji Sun & Yi Zhou & Jiaguo (George) Wang & Jie (Michael) Guo, 2020. "Influence of media coverage and sentiment on seasoned equity offerings," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 557-585, April.
    11. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    12. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2022. "Media abnormal tone, earnings announcements, and the stock market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. John Griffith & Mohammad Najand & Jiancheng Shen, 2020. "Emotions in the Stock Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 42-56, January.
    14. Jacobs, Heiko, 2020. "Hype or help? Journalists’ perceptions of mispriced stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 550-565.
    15. Bajo, Emanuele & Raimondo, Carlo, 2017. "Media sentiment and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 139-153.
    16. Bonsall, Samuel B. & Green, Jeremiah & Muller, Karl A., 2020. "Market uncertainty and the importance of media coverage at earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    17. Hillert, Alexander & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2018. "Journalist disagreement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-76.
    18. Ahmed, Yousry & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2016. "The effect of bidder conservatism on M&A decisions: Text-based evidence from US 10-K filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-190.
    19. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.
    20. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    news media content; stock returns; textual analysis; news-based trading strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:1-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.