IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v58y2022i8p2300-2313.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Exchange Rate Futures Fluctuations on Macroeconomy: Evidence from Ten Trading Market

Author

Listed:
  • Hao-Chang Yang
  • Ferry Syarifuddin
  • Chun-Ping Chang
  • Hai-Jie Wang

Abstract

This research empirically analyzes the impact of foreign exchange futures volatility on macroeconomic variables by using data of ten trading markets from 2011 to 2020.1 Our findings illustrate that the volatility of foreign exchange futures significantly affects various macroeconomic indicators. In particular, as the volatility of foreign exchange futures increases, it reduces government budget revenue, increases the inflation rate, and has a positive impact on net exports and total reserves. Moreover, this research conducted robustness tests by replacing independent variables and conducting a sub-sample regression to ensure the reliability of the regression results.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao-Chang Yang & Ferry Syarifuddin & Chun-Ping Chang & Hai-Jie Wang, 2022. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Futures Fluctuations on Macroeconomy: Evidence from Ten Trading Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2300-2313, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:8:p:2300-2313
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2021.1976636
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2021.1976636
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2021.1976636?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    2. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2010. "News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1628-1636, July.
    3. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: A Theoretical Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 552-569, August.
    4. Wang, Yiwei & Wang, Ke & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 58-65.
    5. Bo Huang & Xi Fang, 2021. "Market Sentiment, Valuation Heterogeneity, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China’s A-Share Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(8), pages 2230-2245, June.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016.
    7. Bin Gao & Chunpeng Yang, 2018. "Investor Trading Behavior and Sentiment in Futures Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 707-720, February.
    8. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    11. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 2042-2051, May.
    12. Flavio Vilela Vieira & Ronald MacDonald, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 203-221, May.
    13. Wen, Jun & Hao, Yu & Feng, Gen-Fu & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2016. "Does government ideology influence environmental performance? Evidence based on a new dataset," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-246.
    14. Ferry Syarifuddin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences Of Foreign Exchange Futures," Working Papers WP/14/2020, Bank Indonesia.
    15. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    16. Christos Floros & Enrique Salvador, 2016. "Volatility, trading volume and open interest in futures markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(5), pages 629-653, October.
    17. Yan Zhang & François Derrien & Xiaohui Wu & Qi Zeng, 2021. "The Unintended Consequences of Regulations in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence from the Chinese IPO Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(9), pages 2583-2603, July.
    18. Alexander Kurov, 2008. "Investor Sentiment, Trading Behavior and Informational Efficiency in Index Futures Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 107-127, February.
    19. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    21. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    22. Idris A. Adediran, 2021. "Can Tail Risk Predict Asia-Pacific Exchange Rates Out of Sample?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-6.
    23. Imad A. Moosa & Param Silvapulle & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2003. "Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Price‐Volume Relationship," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 373-389, October.
    24. Wu, Jo-Wei & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2018. "Does a flexible exchange rate regime increase inflation persistence?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 244-263.
    25. Secu, Piet, 1992. "Exchange risk, exposure, and the option to trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 579-593, December.
    26. Christine Sauer & Alok K. Bohara, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    27. Yang-Chao Wang & Jui-Jung Tsai & Xingyu Chen, 2021. "The Impact of RMB Internationalization and International Situations on China’s Foreign Exchange Market: Dynamic Linkages between USD/CNY and SDR/CNY," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(5), pages 1437-1454, April.
    28. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    29. Chun-Ping Chang & Gen-Fu Feng & Mingbo Zheng, 2021. "Government Fighting Pandemic, Stock Market Return, and COVID-19 Virus Outbreak," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(8), pages 2389-2406, June.
    30. Pozo, Susan, 1992. "Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1900s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 325-329, May.
    31. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "COVID-19 research outcomes: An agenda for future research," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 439-445.
    32. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2015. "Futures Market Volatility: What Has Changed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 426-454, May.
    33. Baek, Jungho & Nam, Soojoong, 2021. "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 463-475.
    34. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    35. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:133-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    37. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "How much does economic news influence bilateral exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    38. Raif Cergibozan & Ali Ari, 2018. "The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 363-387, August.
    39. Joseph H. Davis, 2004. "An Annual Index of U. S. Industrial Production, 1790–1915," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1177-1215.
    40. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
    41. Helena Glebocki Keefe, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation targeting monetary policy in emerging and advanced economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 417-433, December.
    42. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Bernard Njindan Iyke & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2021. "New Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic - A New Time-Series Dataset," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gen‐Fu Feng & Han Long & Hai‐Jie Wang & Chun‐Ping Chang, 2022. "Environmental, social and governance, corporate social responsibility, and stock returns: What are the short‐ and long‐Run relationships?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 1884-1895, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Gen-Fu & Zheng, Mingbo, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy innovation: International evidence," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 1(2).
    2. Li, Boying & Zheng, Mingbo & Zhao, Xinxin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "An assessment of the effect of partisan ideology on shale gas production and the implications for environmental regulations," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    3. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    4. Chen, Yu-chin & Lee, Dongwon, 2018. "Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
    5. Vinogradov, Dmitri & Makhlouf, Yousef, 2021. "Two faces of financial systems: Provision of services versus shock-smoothing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Wang, Ke & Wang, Yi-Wei & Wang, Quan-Jing, 2022. "Will monetary policy affect energy security? Evidence from Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Yang, Qi-Cheng & Zheng, Mingbo & Wang, Jun-Sheng & Wang, Yun-Peng, 2022. "The shocks of armed conflicts to renewable energy finance: Empirical evidence from cross-country data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Dang, Van Dan, 2022. "Bank liquidity creation under micro uncertainty: The conditioning role of income structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    10. Jun Wen & Xinxin Zhao & Quan-Jing Wang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2021. "The impact of international sanctions on energy security," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 458-480, May.
    11. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    12. Wen, Jun & Yin, Hua-Tang & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Uchida, Hideaki & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2023. "Does corruption hurt green innovation? Yes – Global evidence from cross-validation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    13. Zhao, Xin-Xin & Zheng, Mingbo & Fu, Qiang, 2022. "How natural disasters affect energy innovation? The perspective of environmental sustainability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Dang, Van Dan & Nguyen, Hoang Chung, 2022. "Bank profitability under uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-134.
    15. Yunpeng Wang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2023. "The effect of policy stability on clean energy investment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 327-344, February.
    16. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
    17. Heidi Aly & Rana Hosni, 2018. "Examining the nexus between exchange rate volatility and export performance: Empirical evidence from the Egyptian experience," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(3), pages 542-560, June.
    18. Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake & Keun Lee, 2016. "Differential impacts of currency undervaluation on growth and exports in natural resource vs. manufacturing exporting countries," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-023, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    19. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    20. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:8:p:2300-2313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.