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Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia

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  • Joonkyung Ha
  • Sang-Hyop Lee

Abstract

We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions involve (1) the support ratio of workers to consumers has an impact on economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity–quality trade-off, and (3) a current low level of fertility corresponds to very low support ratios for keeping up with frontier economies in the long run. Panel analysis for 178 countries shows that (1) and (2) are satisfied for Asia with higher elasticity than others. As for (3), we set up a dynamic model for simulations, showing that approximately two-third of Asia’s developing countries have an unsustainable level of support ratios, implying possibility of a middle-income trap due to future demographic headwinds.

Suggested Citation

  • Joonkyung Ha & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2018. "Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1225-1238, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:6:p:1225-1238
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1429263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    2. Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608.
    3. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2010. "The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 19-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2012. "Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15088.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jun, Hankyung, 2020. "Social security and retirement in fast-aging middle-income countries: Evidence from Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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