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Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Evidence from Asia

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  • VIKAS KAKKAR
  • ISABEL YAN

Abstract

This paper examines a productivity-based explanation of the long run real exchange rate movements of six Asian economies. Using industry level data, we construct total factor productivities (TFPs) for the tradable and nontradable sectors. We find that (a) within each country the relative price of nontradable goods is cointegrated with the sectoral TFP differential, and (b) the real exchange rates are cointegrated with the home and foreign sectoral TFP differentials. Using the predicted real exchange rate as a measure of the "long-run equilibrium", we find that most Asian economies�real exchange rates are overvalued before the Asian Financial Crisis.
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  • Vikas Kakkar & Isabel Yan, 2012. "Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 301-322, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i::p:301-322
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00488.x
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    2. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    5. Maryam Ishaq & Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2022. "Another Prospective on Real Exchange Rate and the Traded Goods Prices: Revisiting Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Christoph Fischer, 2019. "Equilibrium real exchange rate estimates across time and space," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Vikas Kakkar & Isabel Yan, 2012. "Real Exchange Rates and Productivity: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 301-322, March.
    8. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: : An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness," Working Paper Series 1706, European Central Bank.
    11. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "Empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness – Results for Pacific Rim economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 152-169.
    13. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Yan, Isabel K., 2014. "Estimating and Testing Threshold Regression Models with Multiple Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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