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The Currency Substitution Hypothesis and Relative Money Demand in Mexico and Canada

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  • Rogers, John H

Abstract

The author estimates demand for dollars relative to domestic currency in Mexico and Canada using (1) a multivariate model with a relative money demand equation, and (2) single- equation models, including an error-correction representation. He also analyzes the models' encompassing properties. The anomalous correlation between the Mexican dollarization ratio and expected peso depreciation implies that "convertibility risk" was associated with holding Mexidollars. Under this interpretation, higher expected depreciation coincides with a drop in relative demand for dollars because there is the possibility that the government will forcibly convert Mexdollars when these central bank liabilities rise and foreign reserves run low. Several testable alternative explanations are rejected. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Rogers, John H, 1992. "The Currency Substitution Hypothesis and Relative Money Demand in Mexico and Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 300-318, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:3:p:300-318
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 719-743, August.
    2. Ramos Francia Manuel & Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "The Use of Monetary Aggregates as Indicators of the Future Evolution of Consumer Prices: Monetary Growth and Inflation Target," Working Papers 2015-14, Banco de México.
    3. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 1993. "Default risk, dollarization, and currency substitution in Mexico," Working Papers 9313, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Alejandro Reynoso, 2003. "Using Signal Processing Tools For Regulation Analysis And Implementation: The Case Of The Reserve Requirement Rules For The Foreign Exchange Transactions On The Mexican Banking System," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 2(4), pages 359-390, Diciembre.
    5. AfDB AfDB, 2002. "Working Paper 71 - Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa’s Emerging Economies," Working Paper Series 2284, African Development Bank.
    6. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly," International Finance Discussion Papers 495, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Alejandro Reynoso, 2002. "Using Signal Processing Tools for Regulation Analysis and Implementation," Working Papers 0203, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    8. Susan Pozo & Mark Wheeler, 2000. "Exchange-rate uncertainty and dollarization: a structural vector error correction approach to estimating money demand," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 685-692.
    9. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April.
    10. Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic & Darius Daniel Martin, 2015. "Dollarization and money demand stability in Bolivia," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 116-122.
    11. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Molina, Angel L., Jr. & Pisani, Michael J., 2009. "Peso Acceptance Patterns in El Paso," MPRA Paper 17900, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jun 2009.
    12. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Tests of the functional form, the substitution effect, and the wealth effect of Mexico´s money demand function," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, May.
    13. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "Revisiting Dollarisation Hysteresis: Evidence from Bolivia, Turkey and Indonesia," NIPE Working Papers 12/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    14. AfDB AfDB, 2002. "Working Paper 71 - Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa’s Emerging Economies," Working Paper Series 2204, African Development Bank.

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