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Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly

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  • John H. Rogers

Abstract

Rogers (l992a,b) I put forth the convertibility risk hypothesis in order to explain the anomalous n~gative relationship between the expected rate of Mexican peso depreciation and the ratio of Mexdollars to peso denominated demand deposits. Recently, Gruben and Welch (1994) examine the effect of deteriorating bank loan quality on the variables I consider. Using a cointegration framework, the authors find (i) a negative relationship between non-performing loans and the dollarization ratio and (ii) the conventional positive relationship between expected peso depreciation and dollarization. The first result suggests an additional factor influencing money demand in Mexico. The second result is evidence against my convertibility risk hypothesis. Further analysis indicates that there is some evidence in favor of Gruben and Welch's first result, but that the preponderance of evidence runs counter to their second result.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Rogers, 1995. "Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly," International Finance Discussion Papers 495, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:495
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gruben, William C & Welch, John H, 1996. "Default Risk and Dollarization in Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 393-401, August.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    3. Rogers, John H., 1992. "Convertibility risk and dollarization in Mexico: a vectorautoregressive analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 188-207, April.
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Rogers, John H, 1992. "The Currency Substitution Hypothesis and Relative Money Demand in Mexico and Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 300-318, August.
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