IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mbr/jmonec/v8y2013i2p1-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Chronicle of Currency Collapses and the Effects on Output: Evidence from Six Asian Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tavakoli , Akbar

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

  • Kheradmand , Alireza

    (Isfahan University of Technology)

Abstract

The main goal of the present paper is to analyze the effects of currency collapses (a large devaluation of country's nominal exchange rate) on real gross domestic products of six Asian countries (Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey). A yearly data is collected from the WDI of the World Bank over the period 1980-2011. The econometric model includes the real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and dummy variable (as a proxy variable for the currency collapse devaluation). The currency collapse devaluation is calculated using a criterion similar to M. Bussiere et al. (Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.31, 2012: 680-708). Applying a panel econometric method, the estimated results show that both the inflation rate and currency collapses affect the real GDP growth rate negatively. The implication of finding is that the persistence of the currency crash matters for selected Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tavakoli , Akbar & Kheradmand , Alireza, 2013. "Chronicle of Currency Collapses and the Effects on Output: Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:1-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-89-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-89-en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mills, Terence C. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2001. "The real exchange rate and the output response in four EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 418-430, December.
    2. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kristin J Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 214-238.
    5. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Controls, Devaluations, and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 457-494, April.
    7. Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "Currency devaluation and output growth: new evidence from panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 809-813.
    8. Chou, Win Lin & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2001. "Are currency devaluations effective? A panel unit root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 19-25, July.
    9. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer, 1990. "Adjustment policies and economic growth in developing countries: is devaluation contractionary?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1449, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Islam, Shafiqul, 1984. "Devaluation, stabilization policies and the developing countries : A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 37-60.
    11. Camilo E Tovar, 2010. "Currency collapses and output dynamics: a long-run perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    12. William H. Branson, 1986. "Stabilization, Stagflation, and Investment Incentives: The Case of Kenya, 1979-1980," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 267-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 1988. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 1988/113, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August.
    15. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
    16. Hanson, James A., 1983. "Contractionary devaluation, substitution in production and consumption, and the role of the labor market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 179-189, February.
    17. Pavlos Karadeloglou & George Chobanov & Aleš Delakorda & Wladyslaw Milo & Piotr Wdowinski, 2001. "The Exchange Rate, Prices and the Supply Response under Transition: A Simulation Study," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 6, pages 78-88, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    19. Sheehey, Edmund J., 1986. "Unanticipated inflation, devaluation and output in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 665-671, May.
    20. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
    22. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    23. Aleda Mitchell & Eric J. Pentecost, 2001. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Output Response in Four Transition Economies: A Panel Data Study," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 5, pages 68-77, Palgrave Macmillan.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Magda Kandil, 2002. "Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 69-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    2. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq, 2012. "Are Real Devaluations Contractionary? an Empirical Analysis for Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(1), pages 119-134, March.
    3. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    5. Mironov, Valeriy, 2015. "Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-239.
    6. Munir A. S. Choudhary & Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry, 2007. "Effects of the Exchange Rate on Output and Price Level: Evidence from the Pakistani Economy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 49-77, Jan-Jun.
    7. Fouopi Djiogap Constant, 2012. "The CFA Franc Devaluation and Output Growth in the Franc Zone," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(1), pages 40-48, January.
    8. Artatrana Ratha, 2010. "Does Devaluation work for India?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 247-264.
    9. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    10. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
    11. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:247-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    14. Acharya, Sanjaya, 2010. "Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 413-436, December.
    15. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang & Mary Edwards, 2008. "Does an Undervalued Currency Promote Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2008-2 Classification- F3, Saint Cloud State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
    18. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127.
    19. R Mabugu, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects Of A Devaluation In Zimbabwe A Cge Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(4), pages 708-733, December.
    20. Magda Kandil, 2004. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 85-108, June.
    21. M Bahmani-Oskooee & A Mohammadian, 2018. "On the Relation between Domestic Output and Exchange Rates in 68 Countries: An Asymmetry Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 23(2), pages 1-29, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency collapse; GDP growth rate; Six Asian Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:1-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. E. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mbcbiir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.