IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mbr/jmonec/v10y2015i1p63-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Nonperforming Loans (Case of Iran)

Author

Listed:
  • Valipour Pasha , Mohammad

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Bastanzad , Hossein

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

Abstract

Financial statements of nineteen mature banks have been patronized to examine the impact of macroeconomic indicators and bank-specific determinants on the NPLs ratio through Quantile and Panel Data regression approaches. The impact of macroeconomic indicators on credit risk is statistically estimated for banking network via two directions. First, different quantiles are econometrically calculated, assessed and compared during 2007-12. Second, the Panel Data estimation is utilized in the same way to verify the outcomes of quantile regression and to check the robustness. Results indicate that the impact of real money supply on the banks' NPLs in 25%, 50%, and 75% of data is positive and significant in line with empirical evidence. The coefficients of the other variables (including the ratio of individual banks' performing loans to total deposits, individual banks' performing loans to total loans ratio, as well as GDP would be positively significant as well. The real interest rate has negatively-significantly driven NPLs. The banks' NPLs are generally exacerbated by the impact of higher real money supply over the long run, real interest rate in the money market and upper return in the assets market mainly because of the negative-inflationary transmission effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Valipour Pasha , Mohammad & Bastanzad , Hossein, 2015. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Nonperforming Loans (Case of Iran)," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(1), pages 63-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:1:p:63-84
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-188-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-188-en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2005. "Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-42, October.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    3. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Krylova, Elizaveta, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy. Case of Austria," Economics Series 111, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    5. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    7. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    2. Roland Beck & Petr Jakubik & Anamaria Piloiu, 2015. "Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 525-550, July.
    3. Bruna Škarica, 2013. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 1307, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    4. Bruna Skarica, 2014. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 37-59.
    5. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    7. Yuan, Lin & Zhong, Yang & Lu, Zhou, 2022. "Foreign strategic investors and bank credit risk in China: Disclosure, finance or management effects?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    9. Umar Muhammad & Sun Gang, 2016. "Non-performing loans (NPLs), liquidity creation, and moral hazard: Case of Chinese banks," China Finance and Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 51-75, September.
    10. Vyshnevskyi, Iegor & Sohn, Wook, 2023. "Nonperforming loans and related lending: Evidence from Ukraine," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    13. Ng, Joe Cho Yiu & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Chan, Suikang, 2022. "Corporate Real Estate Holding and Stock Returns: International Evidence from Listed Companies," MPRA Paper 111691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    15. Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
    16. Cho, Sungjun, 2013. "New return anomalies and new-Keynesian ICAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-106.
    17. Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang & Frederico Belo, 2014. "External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Bholat, David & Lastra, Rosa & Markose, Sheri & Miglionico, Andrea & Sen, Kallol, 2016. "Non-performing loans: regulatory and accounting treatments of assets," Bank of England working papers 594, Bank of England.
    19. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    20. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonperforming loans; Macroeconomic indicators; Quantile regression; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:1:p:63-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. E. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mbcbiir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.