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Forecasting the GDP Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Consumer Confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Ateeb Akhter Shah

    (State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, Pakistan)

  • Fatima Kaneez

    (University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan)

  • Arshad Riffat

    (University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan)

Abstract

Consumer Confidence Index; Forecasting; GDP growth; AR; ARMA; VAR

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Ateeb Akhter Shah & Fatima Kaneez & Arshad Riffat, 2022. "Forecasting the GDP Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Consumer Confidence," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 68-88, Jan-June.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:27:y:2022:i:1:p:68-88
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    2. Dees, Stéphane, 2017. "The role of confidence shocks in business cycles and their global dimension," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 48-65.
    3. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    4. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    5. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
    7. Tanweer Ul Islam & Muhammad Naeem Mumtaz, 2016. "Consumer Confidence Index and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(35), pages 17-22, November.
    8. James A Wilcox, 2007. "Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 22-32, October.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    10. Fida Hussain & Asif Mahmood, 2017. "Predicting Output Growth and Inflation in Pakistan: The Role of Yield Spread," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 53-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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