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Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

Author

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  • Nadia Saleem

    (FCC University, Lahore, Pakistan.)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The recent inflationary surge in Pakistan calls for rethinking monetary policy afresh. This paper argues the case for inflation targeting in Pakistan as a policy option to achieve price stability. The country experienced an inflation rate of just below 10 percent during 1970-2009, which makes it a potential candidate for inflation targeting. Applying the VAR technique to data for the same period, inflation is shown to be adaptive in nature, leading us to reject the accelerationist hypothesis. The Lucas critique holds as people are found to use forward-looking models in forming expectations about inflation. The paper also sheds some light on the State Bank of Pakistan’s level of preparedness for the possibility of adopting inflation targeting, for which transparency and autonomy are prerequisites. The interest rate channel can play the role of a nominal anchor in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadia Saleem, 2010. "Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 51-76, Jul-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:51-76
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    2. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2017. "The relevance and relative robustness of sources of inflation bias in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 283-303.
    3. Arshi Shahid & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad & Saima Liaqat, 2020. "Inflation, Globalization and Interest Rate Nexus to Curb Price volatility: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 5(1), pages 153-165, March.
    4. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; central bank; inflation targeting; Pakistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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