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Especulaciones acerca de la relación entre los estados financieros y el crecimiento económico en escenarios inflacionarios

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  • Alfredo Zgaib

    (Facultad de Economía y Administración. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Argentina)

Abstract

The extent to which financial statements not adjusted for inflation, in contexts characterized by increases in the general level of prices, limit the ability of such information to affect stock prices has been poorly explored. This gap prompted us to design a research project that propo-ses, precisely, to compare the impact of balance sheet figures expressed in nominal and real terms on the price of such equity instruments. In this study we contrast an outline of this project, and its main hypothe-ses, with four theories about economic growth: those reflected by the neoclassical models, the information economy, rational expectations and the new institutional economy.The scenario chosen to carry out the project is the stock market of Ar-gentina, a country that makes this comparison possible since these con-ditions do not exist in the rest of the world. Firstly, the persistence of periods with high inflation in a predominantly stable global context (or slightly inflationary after the expansionary policies implemented to miti-gate the consequences of COVID). Secondly, accounting standards that require the issuance of financial statements in a homogeneous currency only when the inflation rate exceeds 100% accumulated in three years. Such regulation led to the submission of both historical and adjusted balance sheets, in different but equally characterized periods of high inflation.If the execution of our proposal confirms the relevance of the hypothesis that adjusted accounting information reflects stock prices more accura-tely than historical financial statements, we can venture that the models proposed by the information and the new institutional economics better explain economic behavior, at least in this inflationary environment. On the contrary, if this hypothesis were to be refuted or, at least, contradic-ted after a time during which market participants adjust their forecasts, the balance is tipped in favor of the neoclassical model or the theory of rational expectations. But even in a world with almost perfect information or forecasts, we feel that the results in terms of efficiency and economic growth cannot be equivalent, except if we also assume that the costs of obtaining constant currency information from agents are comparable to the incremental costs (borne by companies when issuing) inflation-ad-justed financial statements.21

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Zgaib, 2022. "Especulaciones acerca de la relación entre los estados financieros y el crecimiento económico en escenarios inflacionarios," Proyecciones, IIEC, Univeridad Nacional de La Plata., Instituto de Investigaciones y Estudios Contables, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, issue 17, pages 20-31, May-April.
    • Handle: RePEc:lap:proyec:29
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24215/26185474e024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    inflation-financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies-economic growth theories-Argentine stock market.;

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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