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A kamat, az árfolyam és a forint hátralévő évei
[Interest, exchange rates and the remaining years of the forint]

Author

Listed:
  • Tarafás, Imre

Abstract

A Közgazdasági Szemlében közel hat évvel ezelőtt megjelent cikkemben arról írtam, hogy a monetáris politika számára a legnagyobb kihívás a termelői és a fogyasztói infláció jelentősen eltérő mértékéből fog adódni (Tarafás [1995]). Úgy gondoltam, hogy akárcsak az 1995-öt megelőző jó néhány évben, azt követően is az lesz a jellemző, hogy a fogyasztói árszint az ipari termelői áraknál sokkal gyorsabban fog emelkedni. A különbséget egyrészt a fogyasztói ártámogatások csökkenése, az adók növekedése, azaz a nettó forgalmiadó-sáv szélesedése, másrészt pedig az magyarázza, hogy a szolgáltatások árai - amelyek nem szerepelnek az ipari termelői, de annál inkább a fogyasztói árindexben - gyorsabban emelkednek az ipari termékek árainál. A monetáris politika a külső egyensúlyhiánnyal terhelt, jelentős befektetéseket igénylő, deficites költségvetéssel működő gazdaságban nem építhet arra, hogy a gazdaság egyetlen megtakarító szektorának, a lakosságnak a megtakarításai folyamatosan és jelentősen veszítsenek értékükből a negatív reálkamatok miatt - ezért a monetáris politikának a fogyasztói árszint emelkedéséből kell kiindulnia, ahhoz kell szabnia a belföldi kamatszintet. Másfelől viszont az árfolyam-politika nem szakadhat el az ipari termelői árszint alakulásától. A - magasabb - fogyasztói árszint-emelkedéshez igazodó monetáris politika és az - alacsonyabb - termelői árszinthez igazodó árfolyam-politika magas reálkamatot kínál a külföldi pénzügyi befektetőknek; a tőkebeáramlás nagymértékű jegybanki intervenciót, majd sterilizációt kényszerít ki, ami komoly költségekkel jár, miközben a nagy tömegű spekulatív tőke jelenléte a destabilizálás időről időre felmerülő veszélyével fenyeget. Ebben a cikkben ezekből a szempontokból vizsgálom az elmúlt hat év fejleményeit, a monetáris politika reagálását, végül pedig megpróbálok előretekinteni.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarafás, Imre, 2001. "A kamat, az árfolyam és a forint hátralévő évei [Interest, exchange rates and the remaining years of the forint]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 480-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:397
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Szapáry, György, 2000. "Az árfolyamrendszer kiválasztása az átmenet országaiban az EMU-csatlakozás előtt [Choice of exchange-rate regime in transition countries before joining the EMU]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 951-961.
    2. Heliodoro Temprano‐Arroyo & Robert A. Feldman, 1999. "Selected transition and Mediterranean countries: an institutional primer on EMU and EU accession," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(3), pages 741-805, November.
    3. Halpern,László & Wyplosz,Charles (ed.), 1998. "Hungary: Towards a Market Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521630689, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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