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Az inflációs célt követő rendszer hozzájárulása az infláció mérsékléséhez Magyarországon
[The contribution of the inflation targeting system to reducing inflation in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Bareith, Tibor
  • Varga, József

Abstract

Tanulmányunkban arra keressük a választ, hogy a 2001 júniusában bevezetett inflációs célt követő rendszer mérsékelte-e a magyarországi inflációs és maginflációs pályákat. Elemzésünket negyedéves felbontású, 1996 és 2020 közötti adatokon végeztük OLS- és VAR-modellekkel. A teljes időszakon kívül a rendszer adaptálása körüli szűkebb időszakra is készítettünk becsléseket. Legfőbb eredményünk, hogy az inflációs cél követésének bevezetése csökkentette a maginflációt a teljes időszakban és közvetlenül a bevezetést követő időszakban is. Arra nem találtunk bizonyítékot, hogy az inflációs cél követése és az infláció között lenne kapcsolat. A rendszer bevezetését követő időszakban a jegybanki függetlenség sérült, azonban ez segítette a maginfláció letörését. A magyar monetáris politika elsősorban a maginflációra képes hatást gyakorolni. Az inflációs alapmutatók volatilitása és az inflációs cél követése között nem találtunk meggyőző kapcsolatot. Összességében az inflációs cél követése segítette, sőt napjainkban is segíti az inflációs célok elérését.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E42, E52, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Bareith, Tibor & Varga, József, 2022. "Az inflációs célt követő rendszer hozzájárulása az infláció mérsékléséhez Magyarországon [The contribution of the inflation targeting system to reducing inflation in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 989-1008.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2069
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2022.9.989
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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