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A növekedés lehetőségei és kockázatai. Magyarország feldolgozóipari exportteljesítményének és ágazati szerkezetének vizsgálata, 2010-2014
[Growth opportunities and risks in Hungary's industrial mix and export performance, 2010 2014]

Author

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  • Koppány, Krisztián

Abstract

A tanulmány a magyar gazdaság szerkezeti átalakulását s ennek növekedésre gyakorolt hatásait vizsgálja input-output táblák és hozzáadottérték-multiplikátorok segítségével. Az időszak elején még domináns, majd visszaszoruló számítógép- és elektronikaiberendezés-gyártás, valamint az egyre inkább kiemelkedő közútijármű- gyártás szorzói a legalacsonyabbak között vannak. A két húzóágazat GDP-hez való jelentős hozzájárulása sokkal inkább hatalmas termelési és kiviteli volumenüknek, mint hozzáadottérték-hányadaiknak és hazai beszállítóikra tovagyűrűző hatásaiknak köszönhető. A keresleti komponensek közül ezért az exportra, az ágazatok közül pedig ennek legnagyobb hányadát adó, az ágazati politika középpontjában álló feldolgozóiparra koncentrálunk. Megmutatjuk, hogy a 2009-ben bekövetkezett exportsokk nagyjából fél százalékkal nagyobb visszaesést eredményezett volna 2014-ben, mint 2010-ben. A feldolgozóipari kivitelnek tulajdonítható várható növekedés emelkedett, nőtt ugyanakkor ennek szórása, vagyis a növekedés kockázata is. A közútijármű-gyártás mindkét változáshoz való hozzájárulása kiemelkedő. Kimutatható az is, hogy a 2010-ben még két domináns ágazattal rendelkező gazdasági szerkezet fennmaradása jóval kedvezőbb növekedési és kockázati feltételeket teremtett volna, ami a diverzifikáció fontosságára hívja fel a figyelmet.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C67, F43, G11, O11, O14.

Suggested Citation

  • Koppány, Krisztián, 2017. "A növekedés lehetőségei és kockázatai. Magyarország feldolgozóipari exportteljesítményének és ágazati szerkezetének vizsgálata, 2010-2014 [Growth opportunities and risks in Hungary's industrial mix," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 17-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1671
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2017.1.17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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