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A stabilizáció hatása az árak és a termelés közötti összefüggésekre
[The impact of stabilisation on the interrelations between prices and production]

Author

Listed:
  • Vincze, János

Abstract

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy volt-e valami különös a termelés-felhasználás és az árak alakulásában 1995 márciusa után. Miért ugrott meg az infláció 1995-ben, miközben a termelés növekedése lelassult, és a belföldi kereslet visszaesett? Vajon a növekedés további lassulásához - sőt időszakos visszaeséséhez - képest kicsi volt-e az 1996-os dezinfláció? Általánosabban azt is mondhatnánk, hogy a kérdés a sacrifice ratio nagyságára és aszimmetrikus természetére vonatkozik: miért kell olyan "nagy" recesszió egységnyi dezinflációhoz, miközben az infláció felgyorsulása nem jár jelentős outputnövekedéssel (lásd Dornbusch-Fischer [1993]). A magyar stabilizáció, amely egy gyorsuló inflációs periódusból - amikor a fizetési mérleg stabilizálódott - és egy csökkenő inflációs periódusból áll, nem jól osztályozható makroökonómiai történet. A gazdaságot ért beavatkozások és ezek hatásai (a nagy egyszeri leértékelést követő, fokozatosan csökkenő ütemű leértékelés, a költségvetési kiigazítás, a reálbércsökkenést eredményező jövedelempolitika, a külföldi tőkebeáramlás) pozitív és negatív kínálati és keresleti sokkoknak bonyolult kombinációja. Az sem egyértelmű, hogy valóban fennállt-e a felvetett kérdések mögött húzódó jelenség, mivel kérdéses az, hogy mit tekintünk "normális" kapcsolatnak az infláció üteme és a termelés változása között.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincze, János, 1997. "A stabilizáció hatása az árak és a termelés közötti összefüggésekre [The impact of stabilisation on the interrelations between prices and production]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 273-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:165
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Mr. Thierry Pujol & Mr. Mark E Griffiths, 1996. "Moderate Inflation in Poland: A Real Story," IMF Working Papers 1996/057, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antal, László, 1998. "A kiigazítás - ahogy én látom [The adjustment - as I see it]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 97-122.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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