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Lakossági svájcifrank-hitelek árazása - narratíván innen és túl?
[Pricing Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans: beyond the narratives]

Author

Listed:
  • Schepp, Zoltán
  • Szabó, Zoltán

Abstract

A lakossági devizahitel-válság kezelése az elmúlt hat-hét év meghatározó társadalmi problémája, gazdaságpolitikai kihívása. A szokásos szakmai és politikai narratíva a válság elmélyülésének egyik fő okát - a forint jelentős gyengülése mellett - abban látja, hogy a frankhitelek átárazása során a bankok mérték nélkül hárították át növekvő költségeiket a teherviselésük határán lévő adósokra. Empirikus elemzésünkkel e nézőpontot kívánjuk árnyalni. A hitelezési költségek négy alapvető komponensének - a referenciakamatnak, az országkockázati felárnak, a költségvetési terheknek és az elszámolt hitelezési veszteségnek - a frankhitelkamatokra gyakorolt hatását vizsgáljuk. A grafikus megjelenítés megszokott módszerétől kiindulva lépésről lépésre jutunk el a komplex, egyensúlyi árazási visszacsatolásokat is integráltan kezelő vektor-hibakorrekciós modellig (VECM). Ez utóbbira épülő becslések szerint a bankok a felmerülő költségeiket arányosan vagy inkább tompítva érvényesítették a jelzáloghitelek árazásakor. Ha volt tere a gyakran emlegetett "tisztességtelen banki magatartásnak", akkor az inkább a vizsgált költségektől független tényezők érvényesítésében, egyfajta erőfölényes induló árazásban kereshető, amelyet elsődlegesen a szignifikáns és jelentős mértékű konstans tagok tükröznek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D14, G21.

Suggested Citation

  • Schepp, Zoltán & Szabó, Zoltán, 2015. "Lakossági svájcifrank-hitelek árazása - narratíván innen és túl? [Pricing Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans: beyond the narratives]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1140-1157.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1591
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.11.1140
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zoltán Schepp & Mónika Pitz, 2012. "Lakossági devizahitelezés Magyarországon: problémafelmérés és a frankhitelek banki árazásának empirikus vizsgálata," UPFBE Working Paper Series 2012/3, Faculty of Business and Economics, University Pécs.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Dzsamila Vonnak, 2015. "Decomposing the Riskiness of Corporate Foreign Currency Lending: the Case of Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1528, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Radnai, Márton, 2015. "A lakossági devizahitelek átárazásának bumeránghatása [The boomerang effect of repricing household foreign-currency mortgage loans]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-138.
    5. Simonovits, András & Király, Júlia, 2015. "Jelzáloghitel-törlesztés forintban és devizában - egyszerű modellek [Servicing mortgage loans in forints and in foreign currency: simple models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Hudecz, András, 2012. "Párhuzamos történetek. A lakossági devizahitelezés kialakulása és kezelése Lengyelországban, Romániában és Magyarországon [Parallel stories. The development and treatment of household foreign-curre," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-411.
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    1. Dancsik, Bálint, 2017. "Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon [Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1030-1055.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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