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A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata. Áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról
[International experience in forecasting labour markets. Overview of quantitative methods and their applications]

Author

Listed:
  • Gács, János
  • Bíró, Anikó

Abstract

A cikk 12 ország és az Európai Unió - főleg kvantitatív, ezen belül többszektoros modellekre építő - munkapiaci előrejelzési gyakorlatát tekinti át, elsősorban kiinduló pontot és összehasonlítási mércét nyújtva a hasonló hazai előrejelzési munkákhoz. A kvantitatív előrejelzések alapmodellje a jövőbeli munkaerő-kereslet összetevőinek részletes becslésére, a munkakínálat elnagyoltabb felmérésére és a kettő egybevetésére épül. Az alapmodell felvázolása után sor kerül a modellépítés és -számszerűsítés technikai feltételeinek, az előrejelzői munka szervezési sajátosságainak bemutatására az egyes országok gyakorlatának példáin keresztül. A szerzők rámutatnak a hagyományos modellek továbbfejlesztésének irányaira, valamint ismertetik az előrejelzések elkészülte után alkalmazott elemzéseket, így a részarányelemzést, valamint a jövőbeli munkapiaci helyzet mutatójának (IFLM) vizsgálatát. Utóbbi az egyes foglalkozásokra vagy képzési kategóriákra vonatkozóan mutatja a munkaerő- kereslet és -kínálat eltérését. Az ilyen jellegű egyensúlyhiányok és az előrejelzések pontosságának elemzése átvezet a munkapiaci előrejelzések egyik alapvető kérdéséhez, hogy vajon a számítások végeredménye mennyiben tekinthető a jövő előrejelzésének, és mennyiben jól informált, szisztematikus kivetítésnek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E27, J11, J2, O41.

Suggested Citation

  • Gács, János & Bíró, Anikó, 2013. "A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata. Áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról [International experience in forecasting labour markets. Overview of quantitative me," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 134-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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