IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A makrogazdaság fenntartható finanszírozási pályájának elérhetőségéről
[Achieving a sustainable financing path for the macro economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Bélyácz, Iván
  • Kuti, Mónika

Abstract

Ebben a tanulmányban - a három évvel ezelőtt megjelent cikkünk folytatásaként - a 2008. őszi pénzügyi válság utáni adóssághelyzetet értékeljük. A gondolatmenetet a válság okainak vizsgálatával indítjuk. Ennek fő tanulsága: a likviditási sokk súlyosabb volt azoknak a feltörekvő piacgazdaságoknak - így Magyarországnak - az esetében is, amelyek a válság előtt inkább voltak kitéve a külföldi hiteleknek, mint a külföldi működőtőkének. A makrogazdaság pénzügyi rugalmasságának vizsgálata során a szerzők arra jutnak, hogy Magyarországon ezt a válságot megelőző időben a tetemes külső finanszírozási igény gyengítette, amit még tetézett a megtakarítások válság előtti rendkívül alacsony mértéke. A válságot követően csökkent a külső finanszírozási igény, javult a külkereskedelmi egyenleg, pozitív lett a fizetési mérleg szaldója, mindez azonban a GDP csökkenése-stagnálása közepette történt, ami kérdésessé teszi a pozitív fejlemények tartósságát. A makrogazdasági pénzügyi mutatókat tehát a tartós reálgazdasági válság "javította". A finanszírozási helyzet hatékonyságalapú javulása nem következett be; azt csak a GDP gyorsuló növekedése, az exportexpanzió, a jövedelemtermelés javulása és az állami költségvetés tartós költségoldali konszolidálása teremtheti meg. Gyorsan növekvő termelőberuházások nélkül aligha számíthatunk a produktivitás jelentős növekedésére, a versenyképesség javulására. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F21, F34.

Suggested Citation

  • Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2012. "A makrogazdaság fenntartható finanszírozási pályájának elérhetőségéről [Achieving a sustainable financing path for the macro economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 781-797.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1325
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "A Decade of Debt," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 4, pages 97-135, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    3. Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2009. "Külföldi működőtőke és külső eladósodás. Kísérlet a makrogazdasági tőkestruktúra új szempontú vizsgálatára [Foreign operating capital and foreign indebtedness. An attempt to examine macroeconomic c," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 133-154.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    5. Katona, Klára, 2006. "A magyarországi tőkeimportot befolyásoló tényezők újraértelmezése [Reinterpretation of the factors influencing capital imports into Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 986-1001.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Maggie Xiaoyang Chen, 2012. "Surviving the Global Financial Crisis: Foreign Ownership and Establishment Performance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 30-55, August.
    7. Robert E. Lipsey, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Moritz & Bastian Stockinger & Merlind Trepesch, 2017. "Multinational Resilience or Dispensable Jobs? German FDI and Employment in the Czech Republic Around the Great Recession," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 345-359.
    2. Anna Ferragina & Fernanda Mazzotta, 2018. "Firm Employment Resilience and FDI: Evidence from Italy," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 523-556.
    3. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
    4. Anna Maria Ferragina & Fernanda Mazzotta & Erol Taymaz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2013. "The Impact Of Fdi On Firm Survival And Employment: A Comparative Analysis For Turkey And Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1211, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2014. "International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 379-409, May.
    6. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    8. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    9. Xing, Xiaoyun & Xiong, Wanting & Chen, Liujun & Chen, Jiawei & Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2018. "Money circulation and debt circulation: A restatement of quantity theory of money," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2011. "A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises," 'Angelo Costa' Lectures Serie, SIPI Spa, issue Lect. XII.
    11. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    12. Dai, Yanke & Li, Baoxin & Xu, Yangfei, 2023. "International transmission of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from FIEs’ investments in China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
    14. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    16. Claessens, Stijn & Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-387.
    17. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    18. Kateřina Duspivová, 2011. "Role zahraničního vlastnictví z hlediska tvorby pracovních míst a fluktuace zaměstnanců [The Role of the Foreign Ownership in Job and Employee Flows]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(6), pages 759-774.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    20. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.