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Válság és a potenciális növekedés az Európai Unióban
[Crisis and potential growth in the European Union]

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  • Halmai, Péter

Abstract

Az európai gazdaság aktuális kibocsátásának drámai csökkenése jóval erőteljesebb, mint amennyit megmagyarázhat a potenciális kibocsátástól történő ciklikus eltérés. A szerző áttekinti, hogy milyen hatást gyakorolt a válság az Európai Unió tagállamainak potenciális növekedésére, valamint annak legfontosabb tényezőire: a munka hasznosulására, a tőkeakkumulációra és a teljes tényezőtermelékenységre. A szerző - a termelésifüggvény-megközelítés alkalmazásával - széles körű középtávú mennyiségi elemzést végzett az Európai Unió újszerűen körülhatárolt öt országcsoportjában. A potenciális növekedés üteme - a szimulációk szerint - a jelenlegi gazdaságpolitika folytatása esetén középtávon is csak részben áll helyre. Különösen kedvezőtlenek a mediterrán és a sérülékenynek nevezett - közép-kelet-európai - országcsoport kilátásai. Hosszabb távon az európai növekedési potenciál további eróziója várható. Emiatt különösen fontos a növekedés lehetőségeket fokozó makrogazdasági politika alkalmazása, valamint a régóta halogatott strukturális reformok végrehajtása. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F43, F47, O47.

Suggested Citation

  • Halmai, Péter, 2011. "Válság és a potenciális növekedés az Európai Unióban [Crisis and potential growth in the European Union]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1059-1081.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1282
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kovács, Olivér, 2021. "Integrációelmélet és makroökonómia Gondolatok Halmai Péter Mélyintegráció A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió ökonómiája című kötete kapcsán [Integration and macroeconomics. Thoughts on Péter Halmai s Mé," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 564-579.
    2. Halmai, Péter, 2015. "Az európai növekedési potenciál eróziója és válsága [Erosion and crisis in European growth potential]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 379-414.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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