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Dispersion of Inflation Expectations: Stylized Facts, Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Implications

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  • Young Se Kim

    (Sungkyunkwan University)

  • Byeongdeuk Jang

    (Sungkyunkwan University)

Abstract

Building on time-series and cross-sectional properties of survey forecasts, this paper documents a fruitful set of stylized facts of inflation expectations in Korea that a macroeconomic theory must aim to explain. Despite the fact that survey measures of inflation expectations have a similar central tendency, the amount of disagreement among different types of economic agents appears to be substantial and shows no clear relationship with relative price variability. The analysis of micro-level inflation expectations data suggests that inflation uncertainty measured by dispersion of households expectations relies not only on inflation regime but also on relative price variability. Each survey forecast has the ability to explain the path of future inflation, but surprisingly with the wrong direction from the rationality perspectives. Percentile regression analysis yields robust evidence of bounded rationality for the households.

Suggested Citation

  • Young Se Kim & Byeongdeuk Jang, 2015. "Dispersion of Inflation Expectations: Stylized Facts, Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Implications," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 31, pages 89-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:kea:keappr:ker-20150630-31-1-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Byeongdeuk Jang & Young Se Kim, 2017. "Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 207-237.
    2. Jin Yeub Kim & Myungkyu Shim, 2022. "Information Inequality and the Role of Public Information," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 38, pages 207-230.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey Expectations; Inflation Uncertainty; Disagreement; Rationality; Relative Price Variability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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