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Uncertainty Surrounding The U.S. NAIRU Estimates Of Estrella And Mishkin(1999)

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Harvie

    (University of Wollongong)

  • Hyeon-Seung Huh

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

Estrella and Mishkin(1999) propose a promising method to estimate the NAIRU for the U.S. However, their uncertainty measure of the NAIRU estimates is problematic, as the underlying assumption of normality is violated. We apply the block bootstrap techniques to offer a better measure of precision. One implication is that their method underestimates the true uncertainty surrounding the NAIRU estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Harvie & Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2007. "Uncertainty Surrounding The U.S. NAIRU Estimates Of Estrella And Mishkin(1999)," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 49-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:kea:keappr:ker-200706-23-1-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; Uncertainty; Fat tails; Block bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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