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Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

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  • Andreas W. Schäfer

    (Stanford University
    University College London)

Abstract

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas W. Schäfer, 2017. "Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 293-310, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-015-9638-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    2. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Chen, Cynthia, 2004. "TTB or not TTB, that is the question: a review and analysis of the empirical literature on travel time (and money) budgets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(9-10), pages 643-675.
    3. Fulton, Lew & Cazzola, Pierpaolo & Cuenot, François, 2009. "IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) and its use in the ETP 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3758-3768, October.
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