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Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

Author

Listed:
  • Fariya Sharmeen
  • Theo Arentze
  • Harry Timmermans

Abstract

This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social networks. The model uses theories of homophily and reciprocity and is formulated in a random utility maximization framework to predict the formation of social ties between individuals in the population. It is then extended to predict the evolution of social networks in response to life cycle events. The model is estimated using attribute data of a national sample and an event-based retrospective dataset collected in 2009 and 2011 respectively. Findings suggest that homophily has a strong effect on the formation of new ties. However, heterophily also plays a role in maintaining existing ties. Although the motivation of this research stems from incorporating social network dynamics in large-scale travel behaviour micro-simulation models, the research can be used in a variety of fields for similar purposes. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Fariya Sharmeen & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2015. "Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(5), pages 733-751, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:42:y:2015:i:5:p:733-751
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9644-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Calastri, Chiara & Hess, Stephane & Daly, Andrew & Carrasco, Juan Antonio & Choudhury, Charisma, 2018. "Modelling the loss and retention of contacts in social networks: The role of dyad-level heterogeneity and tie strength," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 63-77.
    2. Albrecht, Janna & Holz-Rau, Christian & Scheiner, Joachim, 2017. "Life-course data reconstruction using complementary information taken from linked lives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 308-318.
    3. Frank Goetzke & Regine Gerike & Antonio Páez & Elenna Dugundji, 2015. "Social interactions in transportation: analyzing groups and spatial networks," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(5), pages 723-731, September.
    4. Scheiner, Joachim, 2020. "Changes in travel mode use over the life course with partner interactions in couple households," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 791-807.

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