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Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging

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  • Richard Bradley

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bradley, 2018. "Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(1), pages 5-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:85:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9615-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-017-9615-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2017. "Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part one: general agendas," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 48(4), pages 747-786, April.
    2. A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
    3. French, Simon, 1981. "Consensus of opinion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 332-340, August.
    4. Peter A. Morris, 1974. "Decision Analysis Expert Use," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1233-1241, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Philip Dawid & Julia Mortera, 2020. "Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 453-456, April.
    2. Ghosh, Aniruddha & Khan, M. Ali, 2021. "On a diversity of perspectives and world views: Learning under Bayesian vis-á-vis DeGroot updating," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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