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Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Fábio Dias Duarte

    (IPP-ESTG & NECE)

  • Ana Paula Matias Gama

    (UBI & NECE)

  • Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen

    (ISCTE-IUL Business School & Vlerick Business School)

Abstract

We investigate the role of (business) collateral and (personal) guarantees alongside small and medium enterprise (SME), lending bank and loan characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sectors, and geographic locations while controlling for unobserved time effects in predicting default at the peak of the financial crisis. First, we find a positive relation between collateral and default, and a negative relation between guarantees and default. Second, we find a negative relation between the joint influence of collateral and high credit score, and a positive relation between the joint influence of collateral and low credit score and default. We also find a negative relation between the joint influence of guarantees and high credit score. These findings are relevant for SME policies aimed at facilitating access to credit, reducing the cost of borrowing, and decreasing default; risk management of banks; and the application of theories of financial economics in the context of a financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fábio Dias Duarte & Ana Paula Matias Gama & Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen, 2018. "Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 591-608, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:51:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11187-017-9944-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-017-9944-9
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    7. Carmen Gallucci & Rosalia Santullli & Michele Modina & Vincenzo Formisano, 2023. "Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(3), pages 873-892, September.
    8. Modina, Michele & Pietrovito, Filomena & Gallucci, Carmen & Formisano, Vincenzo, 2023. "Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 254-268.
    9. Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Stefano Filomeni & Alessandra Tanda & Barbara Tarantino, 2024. "Can we trust machine learning to predict the credit risk of small businesses?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 925-954, October.
    11. Mohammad S. Uddin & Guotai Chi & Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Tabassum Habib, 2022. "Leveraging random forest in micro‐enterprises credit risk modelling for accuracy and interpretability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3713-3729, July.
    12. Dennis Bams & Magdalena Pisa & Christian C. P. Wolff, 2021. "Spillovers to small business credit risk," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 323-352, June.
    13. Marc Cowling & Susan Marlow & Weixi Liu, 2020. "Gender and bank lending after the global financial crisis: are women entrepreneurs safer bets?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 853-880, December.
    14. Fábio Dias Duarte & Ana Paula Matias Gama & Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen, 2020. "Credit risk, owner liability, and bank loan maturities during the global financial crisis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 628-683, June.
    15. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
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    17. DODERO ORTIZ DE ZEVALLOS Gino Felix & CLEMENTE-ALMENDROS José Antonio & BAHAMONDES ROSADO María Emilia, 2023. "The Covid-19 Crisis And The Financial Impact On Family Firms," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 86-108, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate financing decisions; Financial crisis; Government policy and regulation; Banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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