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The Impact of Perceived Expectations and Uncertainty on Firm Investment

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  • Mark Koetse
  • Arno Vlist
  • Henri Groot

Abstract

This paper analyses the (differential) impact of perceived expectations and uncertainty on investment spending in small and large firms. We analyse two types of investment, viz. aggregate investment and investment in energy-saving technologies, using Dutch firm level data. The results show that expectations and uncertainty about input- and output prices and domestic demand have substantial but different effects on investment spending in firms of different sizes. Furthermore, we find evidence, at least for small firms, that there are important differences between the effects of uncertainty about input and output variables. Copyright Springer 2006

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  • Mark Koetse & Arno Vlist & Henri Groot, 2006. "The Impact of Perceived Expectations and Uncertainty on Firm Investment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 365-376, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:26:y:2006:i:4:p:365-376
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-005-3201-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Gelderen, Marco & Frese, Michael & Thurik, Roy, 2000. "Strategies, Uncertainty and Performance of Small Business Startups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 165-181.
    2. Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on investment plans," Working Paper Research 24, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Lensink, Robert & Steen, Paul van & Sterken, Elmer, 2000. "Is size important for the investment-uncertainty relationship? : an empirical analyses for Dutch firms," Research Report 00E03, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    4. repec:dgr:rugsom:00e03 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    2. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Investment–Uncertainty Relationship," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Javier Espinosa-Brito & Carlos Yevenes-Ortega & Gonzalo Franetovic-Guzman & Diana Ochoa-Diaz, 2022. "Impact of an Employment Policy on Companies' Expectations Fulfilment," Papers 2204.05500, arXiv.org.
    4. Roper, Stephen & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2016. "Taking risks in the face of uncertainty: An exploratory analysis of green innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 357-363.
    5. Rodriguez Lopez, Juan Miguel & Sakhel, Alice & Busch, Timo, 2017. "Corporate investments and environmental regulation: The role of regulatory uncertainty, regulation-induced uncertainty, and investment history," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 91-101.
    6. Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), 2011. "Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3830.
    7. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2013. "Business Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Evidence from Employment and Number of Businesses," CESifo Working Paper Series 4312, CESifo.
    8. Groesser, Stefan N., 2014. "Co-evolution of legal and voluntary standards: Development of energy efficiency in Swiss residential building codes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    10. Arno J. Van der Vlist & Marien H. Vrolijk & Geert P.M.R. Dewulf, 2014. "On information and communication technology and production cost in construction industry: evidence from the Netherlands," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 641-651, June.
    11. Ghosal, Vivek & Ye, Yang, 2019. "The impact of uncertainty on the number of businesses," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & Julian Berner, 2022. "Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 764-793, April.
    13. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-060/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Tran, Vuong Thao & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2021. "State-level politics: Do they influence corporate investment decisions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder, 2011. "Conclusions and Future Research," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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