IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v44y2015i1p89-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of conducting capital structure arbitrage using the multi-period extended Geske–Johnson model

Author

Listed:
  • Hann-Shing Ju
  • Ren-Raw Chen
  • Shih-Kuo Yeh
  • Tung-Hsiao Yang

Abstract

This study utilizes a multi-period structural model developed by Chen and Yeh (Pricing credit default swaps with the extended Geske–Johnson Model. Working paper, 2006 ), which extends the Geske and Johnson (J Financ Quant Anal 19:231–232, 1984 ) compound option model to evaluate the performance of capital structure arbitrage. In the paper, first of all, we predict the default probability for each firm using the multi-period Geske–Johnson model that assumes endogenous default barriers. Second, based on the arbitrage performance of 369 North American obligators from 2004 to 2008, we find that the extended Geske–Johnson model is more suitable than the CreditGrades model for exploiting the mispricing between equity prices and credit default swap spreads. Finally, the Geske–Johnson model also performs well in extreme market condition, such as the financial crisis around 2008. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Hann-Shing Ju & Ren-Raw Chen & Shih-Kuo Yeh & Tung-Hsiao Yang, 2015. "Evaluation of conducting capital structure arbitrage using the multi-period extended Geske–Johnson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 89-111, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:44:y:2015:i:1:p:89-111
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-013-0400-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-013-0400-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-013-0400-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guedes, Jose & Opler, Tim, 1996. "The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1809-1833, December.
    2. Geske, Robert & Johnson, H. E., 1984. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options: A Correction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 231-232, June.
    3. Ren Raw Chen & Cheng Few Lee & Han-Hsing Lee, 2020. "Empirical Performance of the Constant Elasticity Variance Option Pricing Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 51, pages 1903-1942, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
    6. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    7. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    9. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    10. Artur Sepp, 2004. "Analytical Pricing Of Double-Barrier Options Under A Double-Exponential Jump Diffusion Process: Applications Of Laplace Transform," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 151-175.
    11. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 541-552, November.
    12. Joshua D. Rauh & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Capital Structure and Debt Structure," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4242-4280, December.
    13. Cho-Jieh Chen & Harry Panjer, 2009. "A bridge from ruin theory to credit risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 373-403, May.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Marra, 2017. "Explaining co-movements between equity and CDS bid-ask spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 811-853, October.
    2. Vincent Xiang & Michael T. Chng & Victor Fang, 2017. "The economic significance of CDS price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-30, January.
    3. Oleg Sokolinskiy, 2019. "Debt rollover-induced local volatility model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1065-1084, May.
    4. Nan Hu & Ling Liu & Lu Zhu, 2018. "Credit default swap spreads and annual report readability," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 591-621, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Zamore & Kwame Ohene Djan & Ilan Alon & Bersant Hobdari, 2018. "Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 811-835, March.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Forte, Santiago, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    4. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "US corporate default swap valuation: the market liquidity hypothesis and autonomous credit risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-334.
    5. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    6. Becchetti, Leonardo & Carpentieri, Andrea & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "The determinants of option-adjusted delta credit spreads : a comparative analysis of the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 34/2009, Bank of Finland.
    7. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    8. Becchetti, Leonardo & Carpentieri, Andrea & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "The determinants of option-adjusted delta credit spreads: a comparative analysis of the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2009, Bank of Finland.
    9. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi & Hao Zhou, 2020. "Specification Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models [Corporate bond valuation and hedging with stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 45-98.
    10. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    11. Yalin Gündüz & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2014. "Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 39-78, April.
    12. Specht, Leon, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of European Credit Default Swap Spread Dynamics," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(1), pages 1-42.
    13. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    14. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Carol Alexander & Andreas Kaeck, 2006. "Regimes in CDS Spreads: A Markov Switching Model of iTraxx Europe Indices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    16. Biao Guo & Qian Han & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "The Number of State Variables for CDS Pricing," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    19. Steven Lecce & Andrew Lepone & Michael D. McKenzie & Jin Boon Wong & Jin Y. Yang, 2018. "Short‐selling and credit default swap spreads—Where do informed traders trade?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 925-942, August.
    20. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    21. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Belke, Ansgar & Gokus, Christian, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets Before and During the Financial Crisis – Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Ruhr Economic Papers 243, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    23. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural model; Capital structure arbitrage; Geske–Johnson model; G11; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:44:y:2015:i:1:p:89-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.