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Management disclosure bias and audit services

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  • Neil Hartnett

Abstract

This paper considers the level of bias observed in management disclosures of earnings forecasts and historic earnings data in Australian prospectuses. Management forecasts and naïve forecasts derived from managements’ normalised historic data are analysed. A key focus is upon the possible association between such forecast bias and differential audit services performed upon the data. Audit firm size and level of engagement are modelled against bias. The full sample revealed no overestimation bias for any of the forecast models, but underestimation was observed for elements of the management and random walk naïve forecasts. Cross-sectionally, a significant association was observed between forecast bias and audit firm size across all three forecast models. Specifically, the audit firm size variable (Non Big-5/Big-5) was inversely associated with the extent to which forecasted and normalised historic earnings data were upwardly biased. On the other hand, the level of engagement was not a significant discriminator for forecast bias. These outcomes are contrasted against others reported elsewhere in the literature and suggest a risk in generalising across contexts. The findings imply a level of ‘disclosure management’ regarding company IPO forecasts and normalised historic accounting data, with forecast overestimation and error size more extreme when the monitoring expertise and/or reputation of auditors is lower (JEL D80, G14, M41, N27). Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Hartnett, 2006. "Management disclosure bias and audit services," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 369-390, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:26:y:2006:i:4:p:369-390
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-006-7438-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beatty, Randolph P. & Ritter, Jay R., 1986. "Investment banking, reputation, and the underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 213-232.
    2. George W. Blazenko & William R. Scott, 1986. "A model of standard setting in auditing," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 68-92, September.
    3. Lee, Philip J. & Taylor, Stephen L. & Walter, Terry S., 1996. "Australian IPO pricing in the short and long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1189-1210, August.
    4. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber, 1972. "Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(8), pages 409-424, April.
    5. Lev, B & Penman, Sh, 1990. "Voluntary Forecast Disclosure, Nondisclosure, And Stock-Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 49-76.
    6. Imhoff, Ea & Pare, Pv, 1982. "Analysis And Comparison Of Earnings Forecast Agents," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 429-439.
    7. Yin Chan, Anthony Moung & Kam Sit, Cora Luk & Li Tong, Millie Mei & Kit Wong, Daphne Chi & Yiu Chan, Ricko Wai, 1996. "Possible factors of the accuracy of prospectus earnings forecast in Hong Kong," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 381-398.
    8. Copeland, Ronald M & Marioni, Robert J, 1972. "Executives' Forecasts of Earnings per Share versus Forecasts of Naive Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 497-512, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pei-Gi Shu & Yin-Hua Yeh & Shean-Bii Chiu & Fu-Sheng Ho, 2011. "The reputation effect of venture capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 533-554, May.
    2. Denis Cormier & Daniel Coulombe & Luania Gomez Gutierrez & Bruce J. Mcconomy, 2018. "Firms in Transition: A Review of the Venture Capital, IPO, and M&A Literature," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 9-88, March.
    3. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Audit; Bias; Earnings forecast; Naïve; Normalised; Prospectus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania

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