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Analysts' Rationality and Forecast Bias: Evidence from Sales Forecasts

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  • Mest, David P
  • Plummer, Elizabeth

Abstract

When optimistic forecasts can improve access to management, rational analysts have incentives to issue optimistically-biased forecasts (Lim, 2001). This paper proposes that the extent of this optimistic forecast bias will depend on the forecast's importance to management. If management attaches less importance to a forecasted measure, analysts should decrease their forecast bias because the expected benefits of issuing optimistic forecasts are less. We examine analysts' earnings and sales forecasts, and predict that analysts' optimistic bias will be greater for earnings than for sales. Results are consistent with our predictions and contribute to the evidence that analysts' forecast bias is rational and intentional. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Mest, David P & Plummer, Elizabeth, 2003. "Analysts' Rationality and Forecast Bias: Evidence from Sales Forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 103-122, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:21:y:2003:i:2:p:103-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Vitor Azevedo & Patrick Bielstein & Manuel Gerhart, 2021. "Earnings forecasts: the case for combining analysts’ estimates with a cross-sectional model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 545-579, February.
    2. Mintchik, Natalia, 2009. "The impact of SFAS No. 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms: Evidence from the initial year of implementation," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 89-99.
    3. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    4. Bruno Deschamps, 2015. "Are aggregate corporate earnings forecasts unbiased and efficient?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 803-818, November.
    5. Christopher Edmonds & Ryan Leece & John Maher, 2013. "CEO bonus compensation: the effects of missing analysts’ revenue forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 149-170, July.
    6. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. April Knill & Kristina Minnick & Ali Nejadmalayeri, 2012. "Experience, information asymmetry, and rational forecast bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 241-272, August.
    8. Saravanan Kesavan & Vishal Gaur & Ananth Raman, 2010. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1519-1533, September.
    9. Kim, Robert & Kim, Sangwan, 2021. "Does revenue-expense matching play a differential role in analysts’ earnings and revenue forecasts?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    10. Shanshan Pan & Michael Lacina & Haeyoung Shin, 2019. "Income Classification Shifting and Financial Analysts’ Forecasts," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-48, June.
    11. Zhaoyang Gu & Jian Xue, 2007. "Do analysts overreact to extreme good news in earnings?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 415-431, November.
    12. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Yiming Hu & Thomas Lin & Siqi Li, 2008. "An examination of factors affecting Chinese financial analysts’ information comprehension, analyzing ability, and job quality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 397-417, May.

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