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Hayek, Hicks, Radner and four equilibrium concepts: Perfect foresight, sequential, temporary, and rational expectations

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  • David Glasner

    (Federal Trade Commission)

Abstract

Hayek was among the first to realize that for intertemporal equilibrium to obtain all agents must have correct expectations of future prices. Before comparing four categories of intertemporal, the paper explains Hayek’s distinction between correct expectations and perfect foresight. The four equilibrium concepts considered are: (1) Perfect foresight equilibrium of which the Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie (ADM) model of equilibrium with complete markets is an alternative version, (2) Radner’s sequential equilibrium with incomplete markets, (3) Hicks’s temporary equilibrium, as extended by Bliss; (4) the Muth rational-expectations equilibrium as extended by Lucas into macroeconomics. While Hayek’s understanding closely resembles Radner’s sequential equilibrium, described by Radner as an equilibrium of plans, prices, and price expectations, Hicks’s temporary equilibrium seems to have been the natural extension of Hayek’s approach. The now dominant Lucas rational-expectations equilibrium misconceives intertemporal equilibrium, suppressing Hayek’s insights thereby retreating to a sterile perfect-foresight equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • David Glasner, 2022. "Hayek, Hicks, Radner and four equilibrium concepts: Perfect foresight, sequential, temporary, and rational expectations," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 39-61, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revaec:v:35:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11138-019-00481-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11138-019-00481-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bliss, C. J., 1975. "Capital Theory and the Distribution of Income," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780720436044 edited by Bliss, C. J..
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Patrick Evans & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2024. "Bounded rationality for relaxing best response and mutual consistency: the quantal hierarchy model of decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 71-111, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal equilibrium; Temporary equilibrium; Rational expectations; Perfect foresight; Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie model; Hayek; Lindahl; Myrdal; Hicks; Bliss; Radner; Muth; Morgenstern; Lucas; Alchian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B2 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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