IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v171y2017i3d10.1007_s11127-017-0438-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are marginals different? Evidence from British elections 1950–2015

Author

Listed:
  • Caladan Barkovic-Parsons

    (University of Exeter Business School)

  • Robert Hodgson

    (University of York)

  • John Maloney

    (University of Exeter Business School)

Abstract

We analyse the results of British general elections from 1950 to 2015. In our model, voting is both instrumental and expressive, and is driven both by ideology and the perceived valence of different parties. On most assumptions the model predicts that the safer the seat the lower the swing. The exception is where ideological factors are relatively dominant in instrumental voting, and valence factors are relatively dominant in expressive voting. In this case the highest swings might be in the safest seats. Alternatively swing might peak at intermediate majorities, and this is what we find when we look at swings between Conservative and Labour in seats held by one or other of these parties. We also find that marginals behave more distinctively when the national result is expected to be close or when there has been another general election recently; and that at least some voters have a sense of what is a ‘bellwether’ seat i.e. one that would be marginal in a close election. However in those seats where the main contest has been between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, the swing is positively related to the closeness of the contest.

Suggested Citation

  • Caladan Barkovic-Parsons & Robert Hodgson & John Maloney, 2017. "Are marginals different? Evidence from British elections 1950–2015," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 303-321, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:171:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-017-0438-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-017-0438-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-017-0438-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-017-0438-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanders, David & Clarke, Harold D. & Stewart, Marianne C. & Whiteley, Paul, 2011. "Downs, Stokes and the Dynamics of Electoral Choice," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 287-314, April.
    2. James M. Buchanan, 1954. "Individual Choice in Voting and the Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 334-334.
    3. Price, Simon & Sanders, David, 1998. "By-Elections, Changing Fortunes, Uncertainty and the Mid-Term Blues," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 131-148, April.
    4. Whiteley, Paul F. & Seyd, Patrick & Richardson, Jeremy & Bissell, Paul, 1994. "Explaining Party Activism: The Case of the British Conservative Party," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 79-94, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bharatee Bhusana Dash & J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2018. "Measuring Electoral Competitiveness: With Application to the Indian States," Carleton Economic Papers 18-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas P. Kyriacou, 2005. "Rationality, Ethnicity And Institutions: A Survey Of Issues And Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 23-42, February.
    2. Schnellenbach, Jan & Schubert, Christian, 2015. "Behavioral political economy: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 395-417.
    3. Dennis Mueller, 2014. "Constraining Leviathan," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 88-102, March.
    4. Jessica L. Darby & David J. Ketchen & Brent D. Williams & Travis Tokar, 2020. "The Implications of Firm‐Specific Policy Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Industry Factors for Inventory: A Resource Dependence Perspective," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 56(4), pages 3-24, October.
    5. Maarten C. W. Janssen & Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2015. "On the Positive Role of Negative Political Campaigning," Vienna Economics Papers 1506, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    6. John Jackson, 2014. "Location, location, location: the Davis-Hinich model of electoral competition," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 197-218, April.
    7. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "Monetary policy, inequality and political instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 614-634, February.
    8. Aloys Prinz, 2009. "The political economy of smoking regulation and taxation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 291-303, December.
    9. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2014. "The role of homo oeconomicus in the political economy of James Buchanan," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 2-17, March.
    10. Ester Silva & José Silva Costa, 2006. "Are voters rationally ignorant? An empirical study of Portuguese local elections," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 5(1), pages 31-44, May.
    11. Kirchgassner, Gebhard, 2005. "(Why) are economists different?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 543-562, September.
    12. Daniele Bertolini, 2019. "Constitutionalizing Leviathan: A Critique of Buchanan’s Conception of Lawmaking," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 41-69, October.
    13. Kovenock, Dan & Roberson, Brian, 2011. "Non-partisan ‘get-out-the-vote’ efforts and policy outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 728-739.
    14. M. Holler & D. Mueller & H. Kurz & M. Magill & Martine Quinzii & H. Lorenz & D. Schneider, 1996. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 101-123, February.
    15. Elchanan Mossel & Omer Tamuz, 2012. "Complete characterization of functions satisfying the conditions of Arrow’s theorem," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 39(1), pages 127-140, June.
    16. Alshamy, Yahya & Coyne, Christopher J. & Goodman, Nathan, 2023. "Noxious government markets: Evidence from the international arms trade," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 87-99.
    17. Roger Congleton, 2014. "The contractarian constitutional political economy of James Buchanan," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 39-67, March.
    18. Robert Sugden, 2011. "The behavioural economist and the social planner: to whom should behavioural welfare economics be addressed?," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2011-21, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    19. Coyne Christopher J. & Goodman Nathan & Hall Abigail R., 2019. "Sounding the Alarm: The Political Economy of Whistleblowing in the US Security State," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-11, February.
    20. Vlad Tarko, 2015. "The role of ideas in political economy," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 17-39, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marginal; British; Election; Swing; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:171:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-017-0438-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.