IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v38y2019i4d10.1007_s11113-019-09519-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Xianling Zhang

    (Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Fei Guo

    (Macquarie University)

  • Zhenwu Zhai

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Xianling Zhang & Fei Guo & Zhenwu Zhai, 2019. "China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-563, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:38:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-019-09519-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-019-09519-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-019-09519-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-019-09519-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    2. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440, September.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    4. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    5. Fang Cai, 2012. "The Coming Demographic Impact on China's Growth: The Age Factor in the Middle-Income Trap," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 95-111, Winter/Sp.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    7. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    8. Avraham Ebenstein, 2010. "The "Missing Girls" of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
    9. Hussain, Athar, 2002. "Demographic Transition in China and its Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1823-1834, October.
    10. M. Merli & Adrian Raftery, 2000. "Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(1), pages 109-126, February.
    11. Dudley Poston & Baochang Gu, 1987. "Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 531-551, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hui Zhang & Jing Li & Tianshu Quan, 2023. "Strengthening or Weakening: The Impact of an Aging Rural Workforce on Agricultural Economic Resilience in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhang, Junsen, 2018. "Population policies, demographic structural changes, and the Chinese household saving puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 181-209.
    2. Abhijit Banerjee & Xin Meng & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian, 2014. "Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 20050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tani, Massimiliano & Wen, Xin & Cheng, Zhiming, 2023. "Daughters, Savings and Household Finances," IZA Discussion Papers 16440, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Fei Wang & Liqiu Zhao & Zhong Zhao, 2017. "China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 31-68, January.
    5. Nelson Mark & Steven Lugauer & Clayton Sadler, 2012. "The Role of Household Saving in the Economic Rise of China," Working Papers 004, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    6. Steven Lugauer & Jinlan Ni & Zhichao Yin, 2014. "Micro-Data Evidence on Family Size and Chinese Saving Rates," Working Papers 023, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    7. Yao, Yang, 2014. "The Chinese Growth Miracle," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 943-1031, Elsevier.
    8. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    9. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Mr. Xu Qingjun & Mr. Murtaza H Syed, 2013. "China’s Demography and its Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/082, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Li, Bingjing & Zhang, Hongliang, 2017. "Does population control lead to better child quality? Evidence from China’s one-child policy enforcement," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 246-260.
    11. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner, 2022. "Does Public Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from Chinese Household Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9741, CESifo.
    12. He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    13. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Song, Zhongchen & Coupé, Tom & Reed, W. Robert, 2021. "Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on Chinese household savings - Evidence from an Oaxaca decomposition," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Zhou, Weina, 2014. "Brothers, household financial markets and savings rate in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 34-47.
    16. Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
    17. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    18. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "Gender 'Rebalancing' in China: A Global-Level Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    20. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-01164462, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:38:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-019-09519-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.