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Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques

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  • Mario Reinhold
  • Stephan Thomsen

Abstract

Population projections commonly suffer from a decreasing accuracy with a higher degree of disaggregation. We suggest combining the cohort-component model and an averaged projection technique to improve precision of forecasts for small areas. Calculating ex-post population projections, we evaluate the precision and bias of the proposed method by contrasting error patterns of commonly used techniques using official population data from 46 districts of a German state for the years 1980–2013. In comparison to the individual methods considered, the combined approach results in the highest accuracy and lowest bias both for the total population and for age groups. The proposed method is also more robust regarding past growth. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Mario Reinhold & Stephan Thomsen, 2015. "Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(4), pages 593-613, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:34:y:2015:i:4:p:593-613
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-015-9362-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Goodwin, 2009. "New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 12, pages 33-35, Winter.
    2. Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
    3. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    4. Joop Beer & Ingeborg Deerenberg, 2007. "An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 511-528, December.
    5. Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2003. "An evaluation of population projections by age," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 741-757, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    2. Wilson, Tom & Grossman, Irina & Temple, Jeromey, 2023. "Evaluation of the best M4 competition methods for small area population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-122.
    3. Tom Wilson, 2022. "Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(32), pages 919-956.
    4. Philip Rees & Tom Wilson, 2023. "Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.

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