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Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008–2011

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  • Philip Cohen

Abstract

Recession may increase divorce through a stress mechanism, or reduce divorce by exacerbating cost barriers or strengthening family bonds. After establishing an individual-level model predicting US women’s divorce, the paper tests period effects, and whether unemployment and foreclosures are associated with the odds of divorce using the 2008–2011 American Community Survey. Results show a downward spike in the divorce rate after 2008, almost recovering to the expected level by 2011, which suggests a negative recession effect. On the other hand, state foreclosure rates are positively associated with the odds of divorce with individual controls, although this effect is not significant when state fixed effects are introduced. State unemployment rates show no effect on odds of divorce. Future research will have to determine why national divorce odds fell during the recession, while state-level economic indicators were not strongly associated with divorce. Exploratory analysis which shows unemployment decreasing divorce odds for those with college degrees, while foreclosures have the opposite effect, provide one possible avenue for such research. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Philip Cohen, 2014. "Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008–2011," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(5), pages 615-628, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:33:y:2014:i:5:p:615-628
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-014-9323-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Daniel Schneider & Orestes Hastings, 2015. "Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States: Evidence From the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1893-1915, December.
    4. French, Declan & Vigne, Samuel, 2019. "The causes and consequences of household financial strain: A systematic review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 150-156.
    5. Elena Bastianelli & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "The Gendered Relationship Between (Old and New Forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1021-1048, June.
    6. Mónica L. Caudillo & Andrés Villarreal & Philip N. Cohen, 2022. "The Opioid Epidemic and Children’s Living Arrangements in the United States, 2000–2018," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 703(1), pages 162-187, September.
    7. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    8. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar & Adan Silverio-Murillo & Sherajum Monira Farin, 2023. "Marriage and divorce during a pandemic: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marital formation and dissolution in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 757-788, September.
    9. Amit Kaplan & Anat Herbst-Debby, 2018. "Fragile Employment, Liquid Love: Employment Instability and Divorce in Israel," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Nathan Seltzer, 2019. "Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1463-1493, August.
    11. Zheng, Shilin & Duan, Yuwei & Ward, Michael R., 2019. "The effect of broadband internet on divorce in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 99-114.

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