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Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals

Author

Listed:
  • Zhihua Li

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Graham Loomes

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Intertemporal preference reversals occur when individuals choose future option A over future option B in a direct choice between the two but place a higher ‘immediate cash’ value on B than on A. Tversky et al. (1990) reported strong evidence of such reversals, which they attributed mainly to valuation biases rather than intransitivity. We find similar levels of reversals, even after adjusting for considerable degrees of variability and imprecision in people’s responses. However, we disagree with Tversky et al.’s conclusions about the causes of the majority of these reversals. We find substantial levels of intransitivity in respondents’ binary choices as well as differential overvaluation of both options relative to the values inferred from their choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhihua Li & Graham Loomes, 2022. "Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 19-41, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:64:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11166-022-09369-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09369-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kahneman, Daniel & Ritov, Ilana & Schkade, David A, 1999. "Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 203-235, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal choice; Preference reversals; Decision experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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