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The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Kniesner

    (Claremont Graduate University, Syracuse University (Emeritus), IZA)

  • Ryan Sullivan

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

Abstract

Our research estimates COVID-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July 27, 2020, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of July 27, 2020, the cumulative confirmed number of cases was about 4.2 million with almost 300,000 of them entailing hospitalizations. Due to data collection limitations the confirmed totals reported by the CDC undercount the actual number of cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. Using standard assumptions provided by the CDC, we estimate that as of July 27, 2020, the actual number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is about 47 million with almost 1 million involving hospitalizations. Applying value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates from the Department of Transportation (DOT), we estimate an overall non-fatal unadjusted valuation of $2.2 trillion for the U.S. with a weighted average value of about $46,000 per case. This is almost 40% higher than the total valuation of $1.6 trillion (using about $11 million VSL from the DOT) for all approximately 147,000 COVID-19 fatalities. We also show a variety of estimates that adjust the non-fatal valuations by the dreaded and uncertainty aspect of COVID-19, age, income, and a factor related to fatality categorization. The adjustments show current overall non-fatal valuations ranging from about $1.5 trillion to about $9.6 trillion. Finally, we use CDC forecast data to estimate non-fatal valuations through November 2020, and find that the overall cumulative valuation increases from about $2.2 trillion to about $5.7 trillion or to about 30% of GDP. Because of the larger numbers of cases involved our calculations imply that non-fatal infections are as economically serious in the aggregate as ultimately fatal infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Kniesner & Ryan Sullivan, 2020. "The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 155-176, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:61:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-020-09339-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09339-0
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Policy trade-offs

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    2. W. Kip Viscusi, 2020. "Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 101-128, October.
    3. Cardoso, Diego S. & Dahis, Ricardo, 2024. "Calculating the economic value of non-marginal mortality risk reductions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    4. Thomas J. Kniesner & W. Kip Viscusi, 2023. "Compensating Differentials for Occupational Health and Safety Risks: Implications of Recent Evidence," Research in Labor Economics, in: 50th Celebratory Volume, volume 50, pages 83-116, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Dhaval Dave & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2022. "The limits of reopening policy to alter economic behavior: New evidence from Texas," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 109-145, April.
    6. Shanike J. Smart & Solomon W. Polachek, 2024. "COVID-19 vaccine and risk-taking," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 25-49, February.
    7. Bognanni, Mark & Hanley, Doug & Kolliner, Daniel & Mitman, Kurt, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," IZA Discussion Papers 13797, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    9. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2024. "Into the Unknown: Uncertainty, Foreboding and Financial Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Dhaval Dave & Andrew Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Connor Redpath & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 133-167, October.
    11. Euijune Kim & Dongyeong Jin & Hojune Lee & Min Jiang, 2023. "The economic damage of COVID-19 on regional economies: an application of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to South Korea," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(1), pages 243-268, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value of a Statistical Injury; VSI; Value of a Statistical Life; VSL; COVID-19; Pandemic; Willingness to Pay; Benefit-Cost Analysis; CDC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • J28 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Safety; Job Satisfaction; Related Public Policy
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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