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The effect of ambiguity on risk management choices: An experimental study

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  • Vickie Bajtelsmit
  • Jennifer Coats
  • Paul Thistle

Abstract

We introduce a model of the decision between precaution and insurance under an ambiguous probability of loss and employ a novel experimental design to test its predictions. Our experimental results show that the likelihood of insurance purchase increases with ambiguous increases in the probability of loss. When insurance is unavailable, individuals invest more in precaution when the probability of loss is known than when it is ambiguous. Our results suggest that sources of ambiguity surrounding liability losses may explain the documented tendency to overinsure against liability rather than meet a standard of care through precaution. The results provide support for our theoretical predictions related to risk management decisions under alternative probabilities of loss and information conditions, and have implications for liability, environmental, and catastrophe insurance markets. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Vickie Bajtelsmit & Jennifer Coats & Paul Thistle, 2015. "The effect of ambiguity on risk management choices: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 249-280, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:50:y:2015:i:3:p:249-280
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-015-9218-3
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    2. HIGASHIDA Keisaku & TANAKA Kenta & MANAGI Shunsuke, 2018. "Losses on Asset Returns Caused by Perception Gaps of Fundamental Values: Evidence from laboratory experiments," Discussion papers 18008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Richard J. Arend, 2022. "Strategic decision-making under ambiguity: insights from exploring a simple linked two-game model," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 5845-5861, November.
    4. Daniela Cagno & Daniela Grieco, 2023. "Insurance Choices and Sources of Ambiguity," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(1), pages 295-319, March.
    5. Adloff, Susann, 2021. "Adapting to Climate Change: Threat Experience, Cognition and Protection Motivation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242400, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Cecchi, Francesco & Lensink, Robert & Slingerland, Edwin, 2024. "Ambiguity attitudes and demand for weather index insurance with and without a credit bundle: experimental evidence from Kenya," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    7. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Richard Peter & Marc A. Ragin, 2023. "Probability weighting and insurance demand in a unified framework," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(1), pages 63-109, March.
    8. Hui Li & Seth Neumuller & Casey Rothschild, 2021. "Optimal annuitization with imperfect information about insolvency risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 101-130, March.
    9. Richard J. Arend, 2020. "Strategic decision-making under ambiguity: a new problem space and a proposed optimization approach," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(3), pages 1231-1251, November.
    10. Li, Jiangyan & Fairley, Kim & Fenneman, Achiel, 2024. "Does it matter how we produce ambiguity in experiments?," MPRA Paper 122336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Klajdi Bregu, 2022. "The effect of overconfidence on insurance demand," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(2), pages 298-326, September.
    12. Biener, Christian & Landmann, Andreas & Santana, Maria Isabel, 2019. "Contract nonperformance risk and uncertainty in insurance markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 65-83.
    13. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Marc A. Ragin & Justin R. Sydnor, 2022. "Insurance demand experiments: Comparing crowdworking to the lab," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1077-1107, December.
    14. Timo R. Lambregts & Paul Bruggen & Han Bleichrodt, 2021. "Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 229-253, December.
    15. Peter, Richard & Ying, Jie, 2020. "Do you trust your insurer? Ambiguity about contract nonperformance and optimal insurance demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 938-954.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liability; Imperfect information; Design of experiments; Laboratory experiments; K130; D81; C9; C920;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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