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REIT Characteristics and Predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Ping Cheng

    (Department of Industry Studies, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431)

  • Stephen E. Roulac

    (Roulac Global Places, LLC, 709 Fifth Avenue, San Rafael, CA 94901)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between return predictability and REIT characteristics. We build a multifactor model based on a set of firm-specific factors that include (1) Risk factors; (2) Liquidity factors; (3) Expensiveness; (4) Profitability; and (5) Return history. Our model demonstrates the capability of predicting the “winners” and the “losers,” with fairly high consistency. Given the large return differences uncovered by the model, and the fundamental characteristics of the “winners” versus the “losers,” it is unlikely that strong results are artifacts of a biased methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping Cheng & Stephen E. Roulac, 2007. "REIT Characteristics and Predictability," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 23-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:10:n:02:2007:p:23-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
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    3. Mei, Jianping & Gao, Bin, 1995. "Price Reversal, Transaction Costs, and Arbitrage Profits in the Real Estate Securities Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 153-165, September.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    5. Mei, Jianping & Liu, Crocker H, 1994. "The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-135, March.
    6. Allen, Marcus T & Madura, Jeff & Springer, Thomas M, 2000. "REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 141-152, September.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    8. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
    9. Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214.
    10. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuanchen Chang & Yi-Ting Hsieh & Kiat Ying Seah, 2024. "Banking Relationships and Financing Decisions of REITs," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32.
    2. Emanuela Giacomini & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Leverage and Returns: A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-159, August.
    3. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 4-42, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REIT; return predictability; REIT characteristics; risk and return; portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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