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Using Housing Futures in Mortgage Research

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Listed:
  • Shuang Zhu
  • R. Pace
  • Walter Morales

Abstract

Expectations of housing prices play an important role in real estate research. Despite their importance, obtaining a reasonable proxy for such expectations is a challenge. The existing literature on mortgage research either does not include housing expectation proxies in empirical models, or uses “backward-looking” proxies such as past housing appreciation or time series forecasts based on past housing appreciation. This paper proposes to use the transaction prices of Case-Shiller housing futures as an alternative “forward-looking” proxy. As an example, we compare the performances of four different expectation proxies in explaining mortgage default behavior. The loan level analysis shows that the futures based expectation proxy outperforms other proxies by having the highest regression model fit and being the only proxy that shows a significant negative effect on mortgage default behavior, as theory suggests. Out of sample predictions also show that futures have better prediction accuracy than other proxies. In addition, the paper shows that futures contain additional information that is not present in the backward-looking proxies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Shuang Zhu & R. Pace & Walter Morales, 2014. "Using Housing Futures in Mortgage Research," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-15, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:48:y:2014:i:1:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9381-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "A 30-Year Perspective on Property Derivatives: What Can Be Done to Tame Property Price Risk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 121-145, Fall.
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. R. Kelley Pace & Shuang Zhu, 2016. "Inferring Price Information from Mortgage Payment Behavior: a Latent Index Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 246-267, August.

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