IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jfsres/v52y2017i3d10.1007_s10693-016-0255-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information

Author

Listed:
  • Lakshmi Balasubramanyan

    (The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • James B. Thomson

    (The University of Akron)

  • Saeed Zaman

    (The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

Our paper makes a fundamental contribution by studying loan loss provisioning over the credit cycle as three distinct phases. Looking at the three distinct phases of the financial crisis – the pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period – is important as loan loss provisioning is driven by different factors in each, in part due to extensive shifts in (or in the application of) regulatory rule. Controlling for credit market information using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOS) we extend the work of previous studies of forward-looking loan loss provisions using the delayed expected loss recognition approach. We contribute to the growing literature on forward-looking loan loss provisioning and early in the cycle loss recognition by incorporating a broader range of available credit information and explicitly controlling for structural breaks in the sample corresponding to the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 191-223, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:52:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10693-016-0255-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-016-0255-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10693-016-0255-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10693-016-0255-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Is Bank Supervision Central to Central Banking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 629-653.
    2. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    3. Huizinga, H.P. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Accounting Discretion of Banks During a Financial Crisis," Other publications TiSEM b94d0405-1ced-4aa4-870b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Eliana Balla & Andrew McKenna, 2009. "Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Fall), pages 383-418.
    5. José Fillat & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2010. "Addressing the pro-cyclicality of capital requirements with a dynamic loan loss provision system," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU10-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    7. Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. "Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
    8. George J. Benston & Larry D. Wall, 2005. "How should banks account for loan losses?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 90(Q4), pages 19-38.
    9. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    10. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    12. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. "Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-946, December.
    13. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    14. Eliana Balla & Jessica Sackett Romero & Morgan J. Rose, 2012. "Loan loss reserve accounting and bank behavior," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar.
    15. Kane, Edward J & Unal, Haluk, 1990. "Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 113-136, March.
    16. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
    17. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    19. Timothy W. Koch & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q2), pages 1-20.
    20. Eliana Balla & Morgan J. Rose, 2011. "Loan loss reserves, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Working Paper 11-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    21. Kishan, Ruby P. & Opiela, Timothy P., 2006. "Bank capital and loan asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 259-285, January.
    22. Stergios Leventis & Panagiotis Dimitropoulos & Asokan Anandarajan, 2011. "Loan Loss Provisions, Earnings Management and Capital Management under IFRS: The Case of EU Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 103-122, October.
    23. Beck, Paul J. & Narayanamoorthy, Ganapathi S., 2013. "Did the SEC impact banks' loan loss reserve policies and their informativeness?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 42-65.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Apergis, Nicholas, 2024. "The role of loan loss provisions in income inequality: Evidence from a sample of banking institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Simper, Richard & Dadoukis, Aristeidis & Bryce, Cormac, 2019. "European bank loan loss provisioning and technological innovative progress," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-130.
    3. Zhang, Ailian & Wang, Shuyao & Liu, Bai & Fu, Jingyuan, 2020. "The double-edged sword effect of diversified operation on pre- and post-loan risk in the government-led Chinese commercial banks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Fang Du & Diana Hancock & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2022. "Are Incurred Loss Standards Countercyclical? A Case Study Using U.S. Bank Holding Company Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Jinyong Kim & Mingook Kim & Yongsik Kim, 2020. "Bank Transparency and the Market’s Perception of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 115-142, December.
    6. Maximilian Zurek, 2022. "Real Estate Markets and Lending: Does Local Growth Fuel Risk?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-59, October.
    7. Behn, Markus & Couaillier, Cyril, 2023. "Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9," Working Paper Series 2841, European Central Bank.
    8. Ailian Zhang & Shuyao Wang & Bai Liu & Pei Liu, 2022. "How fintech impacts pre‐ and post‐loan risk in Chinese commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2514-2529, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lakshmi Balasubramanyan & James B. Thomson & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "Are banks forward-looking in their loan loss provisioning? Evidence from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)," Working Papers (Old Series) 1313, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. repec:fip:fedcwp:13-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Małgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Filip Świtała, 2020. "Do cyclicality of loan-loss provisions and income smoothing matter for the capital crunch – the case of commercial banks in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 383-436.
    4. Malgorzata Olszak & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Iwona Kowalska & Filip Œwita³a, 2017. "The effect of capital ratio on lending: Do loan-loss provisioning practices matter?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22017, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    5. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska & Iwona Kowalska, 2014. "The effects of capital on bank lending in large EU banks – the role of procyclicality, income smoothing, regulations and supervision," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 52014, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    6. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    7. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks' procyclicality behavior: does provisioning matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115622, HAL.
    8. Peterson K. Ozili & Erick Outa, 2017. "Bank loan loss provisions research: A review," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(3), pages 144-163, September.
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    10. Nicoletti, Allison, 2018. "The effects of bank regulators and external auditors on loan loss provisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 244-265.
    11. Tran, Arthur M. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2023. "Small bank managers are prudent: A Benford’s Law approach to analyzing loan loss allowances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.
    12. Raffaela Casciello & Marco Maffei & David A. Ziebart, 2024. "Regulatory and contextual factors influencing earnings and capital management decisions: evidence from the European banking sector," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 87-146, July.
    13. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1459 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2016. "The Impact Of Capital Ratio On Lending Of Eu Banks – The Role Of Bank Specialization And Capitalization," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 43-59, March.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2015. "Loan Loss Provision: Some Empirical Evidence for Italian Banks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1459, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Balla, Eliana & Rose, Morgan J., 2015. "Loan loss provisions, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 92-117.
    17. Eliana Balla & Andrew McKenna, 2009. "Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Fall), pages 383-418.
    18. Buesa, Alejandro & Población García, Francisco Javier & Tarancón, Javier, 2019. "Measuring the procyclicality of impairment accounting regimes: a comparison between IFRS 9 and US GAAP," Working Paper Series 2347, European Central Bank.
    19. Peterson K. Ozili & Erick R. Outa, 2018. "Bank earnings smoothing during mandatory IFRS adoption in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 32-47, October.
    20. Olszak, Małgorzata & Pipień, Mateusz & Kowalska, Iwona & Roszkowska, Sylwia, 2014. "What drives heterogeneity of loan loss provisions’ procyclicality in the EU?," MPRA Paper 56834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gebhardt, Günther & Novotny-Farkas, Zoltán, 2018. "Comparability and predictive ability of loan loss allowances: The role of accounting regulation versus bank supervision," CFS Working Paper Series 591, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    22. Viral V. Acharya & Stephen G. Ryan, 2016. "Banks’ Financial Reporting and Financial System Stability," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 277-340, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan loss provisioning; Forward-looking; Income smoothing; Capital management; Early loss recognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:52:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10693-016-0255-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.