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Estimates, Bias and “No Sales” in Latin-American Art Auctions, 1977–1996

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  • Robert Ekelund
  • Rand Ressler
  • John Watson

Abstract

Estimate bias and “no-sales” are investigated in the context of Latin American Art auctions conducted in New York between 1977 and 1996. We find that, using a new method for calculating bias, both Sotheby's and Christie's overestimated art (oil-on-canvas pieces) by 2.7 percent. The inclusion of “no-sales” raises that proportion to a full one-third of the art traded. Utilizing a binomial probit analysis, moreover, we find that the estimate “window” is negatively and significantly related to the likelihood of a “no sale” at auction. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Ekelund & Rand Ressler & John Watson, 1998. "Estimates, Bias and “No Sales” in Latin-American Art Auctions, 1977–1996," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 22(1), pages 33-42, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:22:y:1998:i:1:p:33-42
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1007471016277
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    1. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 1997. "Declining Values and the Afternoon Effect: Evidence from Art Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(3), pages 544-565, Autumn.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ünsal Özdilek, 2013. "Visual autocorrelation of prices," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(2), pages 203-223, May.
    2. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2008. "Reservation Prices And Pre-Auction Estimates: A Study In Abstract Art," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 10(24), pages 257-272, June.
    3. Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2013. "Black notes and white noise: a hedonic approach to auction prices of classical music manuscripts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(1), pages 33-60, February.
    4. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini & Antonello Scorcu, 2004. "Price Indices for Artists – A Proposal," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 28(4), pages 285-302, November.
    5. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Nauro F. Campos & Renata Leite Barbosa, 2009. "Paintings and numbers: an econometric investigation of sales rates, prices, and returns in Latin American art auctions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 28-51, January.
    7. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2006. "Hedonic Models and Pre-Auction Estimates: Abstract Art Revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(5), pages 1-10.
    8. Brunella Bruno & Emilia Garcia‐Appendini & Giacomo Nocera, 2018. "Experience and Brokerage in Asset Markets: Evidence from Art Auctions," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 833-864, December.
    9. Marinelli, Nicoletta & Palomba, Giulio, 2011. "A model for pricing Italian Contemporary Art paintings at auction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 212-224, May.
    10. McAndrew, Clare & Thompson, Rex, 2007. "The collateral value of fine art," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 589-607, March.
    11. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    12. Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2012. "Auction Prices of Classical Music Manuscripts – A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 1202E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    13. Kräussl, Roman & Mirgorodskaya, Elizaveta, 2016. "The winner's curse on art markets," CFS Working Paper Series 564, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. L. Picci & A. E. Scorcu, 1999. "Price Dynamics in sequential auctions. New evidence using art auction data," Working Papers 352, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Lisa Farrell & Tim R.L. Fry, 2017. "Pre-sale information and hammer prices for Australian Indigenous art," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(5), pages 483-500, November.

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