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The effect of real estate purchase subsidies on property prices

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  • Carla Krolage

    (ifo Institute
    University of Munich)

Abstract

This paper assesses to which degree housing purchase subsidies are capitalized into property prices. Using a large-scale micro-dataset on German house prices, I exploit the introduction of a new subsidy scheme in the state of Bavaria. My difference-in-difference estimations at the Bavarian interstate border indicate that the prices of single-family homes increased by approximately 10,000 euros more in Bavarian border regions. This is consistent with a full capitalization of the subsidy. No effect is found for apartments, whose purchasers seldom qualify for the subsidy. A heterogeneity analysis confirms that the price effect is larger in segments of the real estate market with a higher exposure to the subsidy scheme. I also provide suggestive evidence that the subsidy scheme slightly stimulated construction activity. Overall, my results indicate that instead of making house purchases more affordable for families, the subsidy scheme led to a rise in house prices and mainly benefited sellers of properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Carla Krolage, 2023. "The effect of real estate purchase subsidies on property prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 215-246, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:30:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10797-022-09726-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-022-09726-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matteo Benetton & Philippe Bracke & João F Cocco & Nicola Garbarinoifo, 2022. "Housing Consumption and Investment: Evidence from Shared Equity Mortgages," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3525-3573.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate market; Housing subsidies; Capitalization of subsidies; Property prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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