IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v95y2022ics0166046222000400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax incentives and housing decisions: Effects of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act

Author

Listed:
  • Hembre, Erik
  • Dantas, Raissa

Abstract

We investigate the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that altered the US tax code, greatly reducing itemization rates and effective homeownership subsidies. Using American Community Survey data and the NBER TAXSIM program, we estimate that the TCJA caused the average effective homeownership subsidy to decline 61% from $2,272 to $885. To uncover the TCJA's effects on homeownership and mortgage decisions, we use a simulated policy instrument that exploits state tax policy and housing market differentials. Comparing households that are similar in observable characteristics but vary in state exposure to the TCJA, we find that each percentage point decline in the effective homeownership subsidy rate lowered homeownership rates by 0.57 percentage point and mortgage use by 0.70 percentage point after the TCJA was enacted.

Suggested Citation

  • Hembre, Erik & Dantas, Raissa, 2022. "Tax incentives and housing decisions: Effects of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:95:y:2022:i:c:s0166046222000400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103800
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046222000400
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103800?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2013. "Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 19079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Davidoff, Thomas, 2010. "Home equity commitment and long-term care insurance demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 44-49, February.
    3. Aaronson, Daniel, 2000. "A Note on the Benefits of Homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 356-369, May.
    4. Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Housing taxation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1461-1489, October.
    5. Jakob Roland Munch & Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2006. "Are Homeowners Really More Unemployed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 991-1013, October.
    6. Jonathan Gruber & Amalie Jensen & Henrik Kleven, 2021. "Do People Respond to the Mortgage Interest Deduction? Quasi-experimental Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 273-303, May.
    7. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    8. Joseph Gyourko & Todd Sinai, 2003. "The Spatial Distribution of Housing‐Related Ordinary Income Tax Benefits," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 527-575, December.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 37-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    11. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    12. Martin, Hal & Hanson, Andrew, 2016. "Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 12-23.
    13. Green, Richard K. & Vandell, Kerry D., 1999. "Giving households credit: How changes in the U.S. tax code could promote homeownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 419-444, July.
    14. Green, Richard K. & White, Michelle J., 1997. "Measuring the Benefits of Homeowning: Effects on Children," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-461, May.
    15. Donald R. Haurin & Toby L. Parcel & R. Jean Haurin, 2002. "Does Homeownership Affect Child Outcomes?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 635-666.
    16. Floetotto, Max & Kirker, Michael & Stroebel, Johannes, 2016. "Government intervention in the housing market: Who wins, who loses?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 106-123.
    17. James Poterba & Todd Sinai, 2008. "Tax Expenditures for Owner-Occupied Housing: Deductions for Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest and the Exclusion of Imputed Rental Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 84-89, May.
    18. Hanson, Andrew, 2012. "Size of home, homeownership, and the mortgage interest deduction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 195-210.
    19. Kamila Sommer & Paul Sullivan, 2018. "Implications of US Tax Policy for House Prices, Rents, and Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 241-274, February.
    20. Daniel Feenberg & Elisabeth Coutts, 1993. "An introduction to the TAXSIM model," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 189-194.
    21. Currie, Janet & Gruber, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Babies: The Efficacy and Cost of Recent Changes in the Medicaid Eligibility of Pregnant Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1263-1296, December.
    22. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Eriksen, Michael D. & Gale, William G. & Mills, Gregory B., 2010. "What are the social benefits of homeownership? Experimental evidence for low-income households," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 249-258, May.
    23. Anthony A. DeFusco & Andrew Paciorek, 2017. "The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 210-240, February.
    24. Jiang, Boqian, 2018. "Homeownership and voter turnout in u.s. local elections," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 168-183.
    25. Di, Zhu Xiao & Belsky, Eric & Liu, Xiaodong, 2007. "Do homeowners achieve more household wealth in the long run?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 274-290, November.
    26. DiPasquale, Denise & Glaeser, Edward L., 1999. "Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 354-384, March.
    27. Coulson, N. Edward & Li, Herman, 2013. "Measuring the external benefits of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 57-67.
    28. Hembre, Erik, 2018. "An examination of the first-time homebuyer tax credit," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-216.
    29. Chambers, Matthew & Garriga, Carlos & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 2009. "Housing policy and the progressivity of income taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1116-1134, November.
    30. Stuart A. Gabriel & Gary Painter, 2008. "Mobility, Residential Location and the American Dream: The Intrametropolitan Geography of Minority Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 499-531, September.
    31. Laurie S. Goodman & Christopher Mayer, 2018. "Homeownership and the American Dream," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 31-58, Winter.
    32. Hanson, Andrew, 2020. "Taxes and Borrower Behavior: Evidence from the Mortgage Interest Deductibility Limit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Jeliazkov & Shubham Karnawat & Mohammad Arshad Rahman & Angela Vossmeyer, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian Quantile Analysis of Residential Rental Rates," Papers 2305.13687, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    2. Maxence Valentin, 2024. "Subsidizing housing with deductions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1490-1515, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maxence Valentin, 2024. "Subsidizing housing with deductions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1490-1515, September.
    2. Wang, Jia & Winters, John V. & Yuan, Weici, 2022. "Can legal status help unauthorized immigrants achieve the American dream? Evidence from the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Brent W. Ambrose & Patric H. Hendershott & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 2022. "Homeownership and taxes: How the TCJA altered the tax code's treatment of housing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1167-1200, September.
    5. Lagomarsino, Bruno Cardinale & Rossi, Martin A., 2024. "JUE insight: The unintended effect of Argentina's subsidized homeownership lottery program on intimate partner violence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Dawkins, Casey J., 2023. "The geography of US homeownership tax expenditures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    7. Hamed Ghiaie & Jean‐François Rouillard, 2022. "Housing tax expenditures and financial intermediation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 937-970, May.
    8. Ambrose, Brent W. & Diop, Moussa, 2014. "Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 114-135.
    9. Collins, J. Michael & Hembre, Erik & Urban, Carly, 2020. "Exploring the rise of mortgage borrowing among older Americans," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    11. Austin J. Drukker, 2021. "Implications of a Mortgage Interest Credit for the United States," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(4), pages 573-588, July.
    12. Agustin Redonda, 2016. "Tax Expenditures and Sustainability. An Overview," Discussion Notes 1603, Council on Economic Policies.
    13. Binner, Amy & Day, Brett, 2015. "Exploring mortgage interest deduction reforms: An equilibrium sorting model with endogenous tenure choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 40-54.
    14. Serafin J. Grundl & You Suk Kim, 2019. "The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Hembre, Erik, 2018. "An examination of the first-time homebuyer tax credit," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-216.
    16. Kunovac, Davor & Zilic, Ivan, 2022. "The effect of housing loan subsidies on affordability: Evidence from Croatia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    17. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    18. Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Effects of Preferential Tax Treatment on German Homeownership," Working Papers 209, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    19. Coulson, N. Edward & Li, Herman, 2013. "Measuring the external benefits of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 57-67.
    20. Hanson, Andrew, 2020. "Taxes and Borrower Behavior: Evidence from the Mortgage Interest Deductibility Limit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Homeownership; Mortgage interest deduction; Housing finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:95:y:2022:i:c:s0166046222000400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.