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The Swedish external position and the krona

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  • Philip Lane

Abstract

This paper addresses the dynamics of the Swedish external position, with a particular focus on its inter-relation with the external value of the krona. We argue that financial globalisation means that a broader conceptual framework is required, whereby exchange rate fluctuations operate through the ‘valuation channel’ of external adjustment, in addition to the traditional trade balance channel. In the other direction, we highlight that the projected trend for the trade balance is an important influence on the long-term prospects for the krona. Finally, we seek to assess the future direction for the Swedish net foreign asset position by investigating the likely impact of demographic change and shifts in the Swedish position in the world income distribution.
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  • Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:4:y:2007:i:3:p:263-279
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-007-0090-8
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    1. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    5. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 106-123, May.
    8. David Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," Working Papers 2006-09, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    11. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    13. Philip Lane, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of International Financial Trade," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp013, IIIS.
    14. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    15. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    16. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Lane, Philip, 2000. "External Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
    20. Sylvester Eijffinger & Jan J.G. Lemmen (ed.), 2003. "International Financial Integration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 2093.
    21. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sellin, Peter, 2007. "Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts," Working Paper Series 213, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Bylund, Emma & Iversen, Jens & Vredin, Anders, 2023. "Monetary policy in Sweden after the end of Bretton Woods," Working Paper Series 429, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Chikhani, Pauline, 2020. "On the Weakness of the Swedish Krona," CEPR Discussion Papers 15468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Emma Bylund & Jens Iversen & Anders Vredin, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Sweden After the End of Bretton Woods," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 535-590, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; External adjustment; Sweden.; F0; F2; F3.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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