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A model of contagion without trading relations

Author

Listed:
  • Gopal K. Basak

    (Stat-Math Unit, Indian Statistical Institute)

  • Pranab Kumar Das

    (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences)

  • Allena Rohit

    (University of Houston)

Abstract

The paper explains the origin of the financial crisis in one country and its spread to other countries—contagion, in a dynamic model of international capital inflow. The origin of the crisis is rooted in this model in the common international loan market, and crisis can occur even when the countries are not interconnected via bi-lateral or multi-lateral trade and commerce, when connected via trade or commerce the contagion hits with a stronger effect. The paper introduces country-level heterogeneity of risk of default for individual countries in the borrowing group which generates interesting cases of the contagion effect. A change in the risk of default of an individual country adversely affects the total supply in the international loan market leading to crises in other countries via increased international interest rates. It has an enhanced effect when the risk of default depends on the lagged domestic productivity of the borrowing country. The model can explain various episodes of financial crisis in a common framework and can be usefully employed for policy formulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Allena Rohit, 2025. "A model of contagion without trading relations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:22:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10368-024-00637-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00637-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; International capital flow; Financial crisis; Dynamic portfolio theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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